BlockBeats News, May 7th. The market focus is gradually shifting from the Middle East conflict itself to the conflict's subsequent impact on the US economy and inflation. Negotiations between the US and Iran are still ongoing, and Trump has also stated that the dialogue between the two sides in the past 24 hours was "very productive." Concerns in the market about a further escalation of the geopolitical situation have significantly eased, and the price of oil has retreated from its highs to around $95.
However, the energy pressure has not truly disappeared. Despite the fall in oil prices, the price of gasoline in the US is close to a high of $4.50 per gallon, a significant increase of about 40% from the same period last year, indicating that previous supply chain and transportation cost pressures are still being passed on to the end market. This has also put the Federal Reserve in a more complicated position: economic data is starting to slow down, but inflation is still unlikely to fall rapidly in the short term.
The latest release of the US April "mini non-farm payroll" showed an addition of 109,000 jobs, slightly higher than market expectations, indicating that although the labor market is cooling down, there is still no obvious slowdown. What the market is truly concerned about now is not whether the economy will immediately go into recession, but whether the slowdown in employment will be sufficient to gradually dampen wage and service-related inflation, thus affecting the Fed's subsequent policy pace.
Turning to the crypto market, after challenging $82,000, BTC has experienced a pullback, and the market is now focusing on the liquidity support effect around $80,000. Derivative data shows that the open interest (OI) has decreased by 5.13% in the past 24 hours. Although the funding rate remains negative on a 7-day cumulative basis, the magnitude of the negative rate has narrowed. This indicates that the market's leverage overheating is cooling down, bearish hedging sentiment has eased slightly, but overall market sentiment remains cautious.
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