BlockBeats News, April 17th, according to Cointelegraph, despite Bitcoin briefly surpassing $76,000 during Wednesday's trading session, Glassnode analysts pointed out that on-chain data indicates it is still too early to declare the start of a new bull market. Glassnode analyst CryptoViz.art measured the average holding cost of active Bitcoin investors using the "True Market Mean" (TMM). Since Bitcoin dropped below this indicator on January 31st, it has remained below for 75 days, with active holders experiencing an average unrealized loss, peaking at a 20% loss, which is currently around 5% below that level. The TMM is currently at $78,013, and reclaiming this level is a key point for active investors to return to a profitable state.

The analyst referenced 10 similar break below cases since 2016, with durations ranging from 2 days to over 11 months. The deepest declines were seen in the 2018 to 2019 and 2022 to 2023 cycles, with a maximum drawdown of 57%. He stated: "75 days are still in the early stages; in the 2018 and 2022 cycles, it was not until the 5th to 9th month that the bottom was reached—this signal is not a 'safe signal' and requires close observation."

In terms of capital flow, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. noted that the market cap to realized cap 365-day growth rate has been negative for 105 consecutive trading days, with the latest reading at -0.000652, indicating that the market has not attracted sufficient new funds to support price growth. The 30-day realized cap change has also been weak, with only 7 days of net inflows throughout 2026, all concentrated in mid-January; since January 23rd, it has been consistently negative, although it has slightly improved from a low point of around -0.54% in early April to -0.32%. Year-to-date, the realized cap has dropped from $1.12 trillion to $1.08 trillion, a decrease of 3.23%. Adler Jr. stated that the recent improvement only shows a slowdown in capital outflows, not a bullish reversal, and both indicators need to turn positive simultaneously and consistently to confirm a trend reversal.