BlockBeats News, May 10th. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted a message stating that he remains cautious about Bitcoin's recent price action. He believes that the current upward movement is a corrective rebound after a significant drop, rather than a confirmed start of a new bull market. He pointed out that after BTC fell from $125,000 to $60,000, the market has seen some recovery, but several on-chain indicators have not yet reached levels seen at historical bear market bottoms. For example, the Long-Term Holder (LTH) position has not shown the typical accumulation pattern seen at market bottoms, and the market has not undergone a full-scale spot sell-off and panic capitulation phase.

On a macro level, Axel Adler Jr noted that the market is also facing pressures. He cited data showing that the US Consumer Confidence Index has dropped to a historical low of 48.2, and Brent crude oil remains near $100, intensifying concerns about inflation. Furthermore, the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen above 4.5%, putting pressure on risk assets.

He stated that the current interest rate market is no longer betting on a swift rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and is even beginning to factor in the probability of future rate hikes. Against this backdrop, he believes that BTC still lacks sufficient on-chain confirmation, stable spot demand, and supply-side pressure relief, and therefore maintains a cautious stance.