BlockBeats News, May 16th. According to a summary of market research and institutional forecasts, gold surpassed its historical high of $5300 per ounce in 2026, reaching a peak. It has currently retraced to around $4700, but the majority of Wall Street institutions still believe that it is likely to retest the $5000 level by the end of the year.

Several investment banks have set their price targets for 2026 in the range of $4500 to $6300. Among them, J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo have both provided optimistic forecasts of $6300, UBS predicts around $5900, and Goldman Sachs has raised its target to $5400. More conservative institutions such as the World Bank forecast an average of around $3575 for the year.

Analysis points out that the core factors supporting the gold price include continued gold purchases by global central banks, escalating geopolitical risks, and a decrease in fiat currency confidence against the backdrop of real interest rates and fiscal deficits. In particular, the continuous increase in gold reserves by central banks in emerging markets is seen as providing long-term "structural support" for the price of gold.

However, there are clear divergent views in the market. Some institutions believe that if the US dollar strengthens, real interest rates rise, or an oil price shock triggers Fed tightening, the gold price could fall to $4000 or even lower.

Overall, the current market generally believes that gold is still in a long-term bull market structure, but the 2026 trend will be highly dependent on macro policies, the US dollar cycle, and geopolitical changes. The $5000 level has shifted from an "upside target" to a key psychological and technical dividing line.