BlockBeats News, May 26th. Wintermute stated in a post that the macro environment improved significantly last week. Brent crude oil plummeted 9% due to easing tensions with Iran, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 4.50%, and US stocks rose for the eighth consecutive week, hitting a historical high. Energy-driven inflationary pressures eased, but consumer concerns remain. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index hit a record low of 44.8, and one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.8%. Meanwhile, the May manufacturing PMI hit a four-year high, input costs rose to the highest level since 2022, indicating a resurgence of commodity inflation. The minutes of the Fed's April meeting also signaled that if inflation remains stubborn, further policy tightening may be implemented, a hawkish stance not yet fully priced in by the market.

On the tech front, NVIDIA delivered an "explosive" earnings report: Q1 revenue reached $81.6 billion, an 85% year-over-year increase, with a 92% growth in the data center business. NVIDIA announced an $80 billion buyback and a 25x dividend increase. More importantly, its Q2 guidance has assumed zero revenue from Chinese data centers, indicating stronger actual AI demand. However, the market's response was unusually muted, with the stock price barely moving after hours, reflecting that AI trading has entered a "perfect pricing" stage. It's becoming difficult for mere earnings beats to further drive the market. This is a significant warning for risk assets, including the crypto market – if AI momentum weakens, subdued consumption, sticky inflation, and a potentially hawkish Fed could regain control of the market narrative.

Compared to the strong performance of US stocks, the crypto market has significantly lagged behind. BTC hovered around $76,000, and ETH fell to $2,140, failing to follow the rise of risk assets. In the past two weeks, BTC spot ETFs have seen outflows of over $2 billion, with institutional funds cooling off significantly, as marginal risk appetite flows back to AI stocks rather than crypto assets. The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to weaken and hit a 10-month low, with a few assets showing counter-trend strength such as HYPE. It recorded a single-day ETF inflow of $25.5 million, with signs of large institutional wallet continuous accumulation. The current market structure has not completely deteriorated, with long-term holders continuing to accumulate and exchange reserves remaining low. However, the flow of funds determining short-term prices is turning negative. BTC's key support is currently at $75,000 to $76,000. If this level is breached, the market may quickly retest the $70,000 to $72,000 range. If held, there is still an opportunity to retest $80,000.