BlockBeats News, May 12th. The core change in the market is no longer just about whether the situation in Iran will escalate, but rather the energy shock is beginning to have a chain reaction with the U.S. inflation structure, Federal Reserve power transition, and global fund safe-haven demand. The risk in the Strait of Hormuz has not been resolved, with Iran refusing to abandon enriched uranium, while the U.S. continues to signal a possible resumption of military action, keeping crude oil and gasoline prices high. Against this backdrop, the U.S. April CPI data is seen by the market as a key turning point, as this is not just a simple energy-driven inflation, but the market is starting to worry whether high oil prices will re-diffuse into housing, services, and the overall core price system.

Currently, the market estimates that the overall CPI in the U.S. for April may rise to 3.7% year-on-year, reaching a nearly three-year high, and the core CPI may also rise to 2.7%. The most noteworthy aspect is not the energy itself, but the potential housing inflation due to statistical revisions and a resurgence in lease renewal rents, further weakening the main support of the past two years for the cooling of U.S. inflation. If housing and energy simultaneously create dual pressure, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut by the end of the year will continue to be pushed back, even starting to reprice the possibility of maintaining high interest rates for a longer period of time.

At the same time, the power structure of the Federal Reserve is also entering a sensitive stage. Powell has overcome Senate procedural hurdles and is set to formally take over as Federal Reserve Chair as early as this week, but his assumption of office comes at a time when energy inflation is reigniting, the White House continues to pressure for rate cuts, and internal Fed disagreements are intensifying. The market is concerned that if oil prices remain high in the coming months, the Fed will be forced to maintain an extremely passive policy stance between "anti-inflation" and "political pressure," and the U.S. dollar liquidity environment will continue to be tight as a result.

Regarding the crypto market, although BTC is still maintaining high-level volatility, the market structure is gradually shifting from "liquidity-driven" to "risk repricing." If tonight's CPI is higher than expected, the dollar and U.S. bond yields may strengthen again, suppressing market risk appetite, and the upward momentum for BTC may slow down. Conversely, if core inflation does not clearly spiral out of control, it will help the market maintain expectations that liquidity may still have a chance to ease this year. The current focus of the market observation is no longer just whether the Fed will cut rates, but whether the world is re-entering a new round of "structurally high inflation era" jointly driven by energy, geopolitics, and the supply chain.