BlockBeats News, May 18th, CNBC reported that multiple institutions have warned that global crude oil inventories are rapidly declining, with Europe possibly facing an actual oil shortage by the end of this month, and inventory recovery may not occur until December 2027.

Jeff Currie, Co-Head of Abaxx Commodity Exchange, stated that although the oil market currently appears stable on the surface, the supply system is already in a highly tense state, with Europe potentially facing a physical shortage "at any moment." He cautioned that once inventories are depleted, oil prices could see a "non-linear" surge.

Currie pointed out that the current crude oil market is transitioning between the traditional low-demand season and peak season. With the approaching US Memorial Day and the UK Spring Bank Holiday, the demand for diesel, gasoline, and aviation fuel is set to rapidly increase, potentially significantly exacerbating supply pressures.

An analyst from Societe Generale (SocGen) in France stated that the current oil market is only maintaining a "veneer of stability," with the underlying inventories and logistical systems actually being "extremely fragile."

The report noted that since the escalation of the US-Iran conflict on February 28th, the flow of oil and gas transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for about one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments, has been continuously restricted. Even if the strait reopens for navigation in early June, considering the processes of tanker transportation, unloading, refining, and distribution, global supply chain recovery will still require at least 52 days.

SocGen warned that if the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is further delayed until late June, the market will face deeper and longer-lasting supply pressures. Global inventories may deteriorate further, oil prices could even rise to $150 per barrel, and remain elevated throughout the year.