BlockBeats News, July 16th, Counterpoint Research Director Hwang Minsung pointed out that a 15% global DRAM market share is the long-term survival baseline for CXMT - falling below this level would repeat the 2008 scenario where Taiwanese DRAM manufacturers slipped to a 3% market share due to inability to cover next-generation fab investments. CXMT's current global DRAM bit shipment market share is about 9%, with a target to increase to 11% by 2028. The funds raised in this IPO will be invested in next-generation G5 process technology, HBM3 high-bandwidth storage R&D, and capacity expansion. The company plans to increase monthly capacity from the current 320,000 wafers to 420,000 wafers by 2027, double by 2030, and triple by 2035; the share of LPDDR5 and DDR5 in total output is expected to reach about 75%, with DRAM for PCs and servers already being supplied to global customers.

Counterpoint listed four key post-IPO focus variables:

HBM mass production yield and revenue ramp-up progress (benefiting from Huawei's Ascend AI chip expansion, with HBM revenue potential of about $2 billion in 2028);

Ability to secure large-scale procurement contracts from global customers outside of China (Apple's supply still depends on approval);

Escalating trade conflicts that could trigger additional equipment export controls;

Whether CXMT can achieve a 20% market share in both bits and revenue calibers in the mid to long term.

Neil Shah pointed out that while US restrictions on CXMT's equipment exports pose constraints, "ironically, this may instead drive CXMT to surpass traditional giants in vertical channel transistors, wafer-to-wafer bonding, and other differentiated technology paths, as the latter often delay technological innovations to protect returns on existing equipment investments."