BlockBeats News, August 21st. HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research analyst Chloe pointed out that this week the crypto market saw a more prominent risk-on sentiment recovery since the beginning of the year. BTC rapidly surpassed $70,000 from around $64,000 mid-week, with a weekly increase of about 18%; ETH showed even stronger performance, rising to above $2,350, with a weekly increase of over 20%; high Beta assets such as SOL, XRP, HYPE, and others spread synchronously, indicating that the market has evolved from a BTC single-point rebound to a more widespread Crypto Beta trading.

This round of gains was driven by three groups of factors. First, the U.S. Treasury announced that starting from September 9th, the size of the long-term Treasury bond repurchase support for 10-30 year terms will at least double to $4 billion per operation, directly improving the liquidity expectations of long-end U.S. bonds and pushing yields lower. However, it is important to emphasize that this is part of debt management rather than Fed QE, and should not be simply understood as a new round of monetary stimulus. Second, the SEC proposed the Regulation of Crypto Assets, establishing two tiers of exemptions for certain token financing at $5 million over 4 years and $75 million over 12 months, and introducing a conditional safe harbor. U.S. crypto regulation is gradually transitioning from "enforcement uncertainty" to "enforceable compliance entry." At the same time, Trump publicly pushed the CLARITY Act, further strengthening regulatory improvement expectations.

The subsequent market trend may maintain a neutral to bullish bias, but volatility may significantly increase. After BTC surpassed $70,000, the key short-term focus has shifted from "whether it can rebound" to "whether it can maintain spot buying pressure post short squeeze." If ETF funds continue to flow in, ETH continues to outperform BTC, and the breadth of altcoins further expands, it means that the market is forming a genuine risk-on sentiment expansion; conversely, if BTC falls back below $68,000-$69,000 and ETH loses the $2,200 level, caution is needed as this rally may be primarily driven by short liquidation. The greater macro constraint still comes from the Fed. The July meeting minutes showed a significant upward skew in inflation risks, with several committee members believing that if inflation cannot continue to decline, further policy tightening may still be necessary. In summary, $70,000-$72,000 may become a new confirmation zone for BTC's direction. If effectively held, further observation towards $75,000 is possible; if not maintained, the market will likely first enter a phase of high-level consolidation and digestion.

Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation of an offer, or recommendation for any investment product.