In 2025, the race for the next big crypto ETF approval is heating up, with XRP and Solana leading the charge. With the U.S. SEC acknowledging key ETF applications and institutional demand rising, both assets are strong contenders for the next major approval.

As Donald Trump's pro-crypto administration prepares the better conditions for digital assets—regulations are changing, and the momentum continues to build, Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas reckon that Solana and XRP ETFs have a high probability of being approved.

But which one will win the race? While Solana benefits from growing institutional interest and strong network activity, XRP holds a legal advantage after its partial victory against the SEC. This article explores the strengths, challenges, and key factors that could determine which ETF gets the green light first.

Current State of ETF Applications

Since the SEC approved the spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, followed by the Ethereum ETF later in the year, crypto ETFs have experienced a remarkable shift. With a pro-crypto U.S. administration influencing regulatory policies, the investment climate for crypto is becoming increasingly supportive. Consequently, the likelihood of further approvals for additional crypto ETFs seems higher than ever.

XRP and Solana are both advancing toward securing approval for spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), each presenting a strong case for being the next in line.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) formally acknowledged Grayscale’s application to convert its Solana Trust into a spot ETF on February 6, 2025, setting an October deadline for a decision. On the same day, four asset managers, including VanEck and Franklin Templeton, filed applications for an XRP ETF, marking a significant step toward institutional adoption.

Market Developments and Institutional Interest

Polymarket traders currently favor Solana ETFs, assigning an 85% probability of approval in Dec 2025, compared to 78% for XRP’s.
For nearer-term approval by July 31, Solana has drawn over $218,000 in wagers with a 37% probability, while XRP holds a 45% probability with more than $103,000 staked.
Institutional demand for both assets is growing, with major investment firms expanding their exposure to XRP and Solana.

Solana’s ETF approval in December shares the biggest odds on Polymarket.

Solana’s ETF approval in December shares the biggest odds on Polymarket.

Solana’s Path to ETF Approval

Several factors have led Polymarket bettors to believe that Solana has a better chance than XRP of being approved for an ETF first. One significant factor is the SEC's acknowledgment, on February 6, of Grayscale’s application to convert its Solana Trust into an ETF, which has set an October deadline for a decision.

Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst discusses SOL ETF

Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst discusses the significance of the SEC’s acknowledgment of SOL.

In addition to the growing regulatory momentum, Solana’s robust network activity over the past year adds to its strong case. The blockchain has established itself as a reliable platform for transactions and smart contracts. It notably emerged as the preferred chain during the recent memecoin trading surge, which generated billions in trading volume.

"This distinction is crucial," said Yuriy Brisov, a securities lawyer at Digital & Analogue Partners, in an interview with Cointelegraph. "If an asset's primary purpose is operational rather than investment-oriented, it may more easily evade the challenges posed by securities regulation."

However, Solana continues to face legal challenges related to securities. In January, James Seyffart, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, predicted that approval from the SEC for a Solana ETF might not occur until 2026 due to ongoing lawsuits against major exchanges. The SEC’s Enforcement Division claims that SOL is a security, which has hindered other agency divisions from considering it as an underlying asset for a commodities ETF.

According to The New York Times, the SEC is reducing its crypto enforcement capabilities by reassigning 50 lawyers.

XRP’s Path to ETF Approval

Gensler’s time as SEC chair faced significant criticism for alleged regulatory overreach against cryptocurrency firms. However, it also established important precedents in landmark cases, such as Ripple Labs' partial victory against the SEC.

During his tenure, Gensler’s SEC actively pursued enforcement actions against crypto firms, focusing on major exchanges like Coinbase and Binance. The agency classified several digital assets, including Solana’s SOL, Cardano’s ADA, and Polygon’s POL, as unregistered securities.

This approach, often referred to as “regulation by enforcement,” drew backlash from industry leaders, lawmakers, and even some SEC commissioners. Critics accused the agency of stifling innovation and failing to provide clear guidelines for cryptocurrency companies.

In July 2023, a significant legal setback for the SEC occurred when US District Judge Analisa Torres ruled that XRP is not inherently a security. The judge determined that only XRP's institutional sales qualify as securities transactions under the Howey test.

In contrast, there has been no court ruling that establishes a legal precedent regarding the classification of SOL as a security or the nature of its related sales. The SEC's lawsuits against major exchanges that assert that SOL is an unregistered security are still pending. As a result, the regulatory status of SOL remains uncertain.

The potential for XRP ETFs is increasing among U.S. fund managers. Source: X

The potential for XRP ETFs is increasing among U.S. fund managers. Source: X

"XRP stands out from other altcoins because it has some legal clarity in the U.S.," said Vugar Usi Zade, the Chief Operating Officer of Bitget, in an interview with Cointelegraph. He explained that this legal status makes XRP different from other cryptocurrencies.

XRP is a well-established and highly liquid cryptocurrency, currently the third-largest market capitalization in the industry at $148 billion. However, Zade noted that its close association with Ripple might hinder its chances of receiving approval for an ETF.

"The SEC has argued that Ripple's control over XRP raises concerns about centralization, which contradicts the decentralization standards applied to Bitcoin and Ethereum," he added.

Zade elaborated, “Although XRP enjoys legal clarity concerning secondary sales, there is still regulatory uncertainty surrounding Ripple's ecosystem and its potential effects on an ETF structure. These concerns may lead the SEC to be hesitant in approving an XRP ETF in the near future.”

The number of ETF applications for XRP and Solana has been steadily increasing, leading to widespread speculation. Recently, the CME Group's website briefly suggested that it might list futures contracts for XRP and SOL. In the past, the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs was influenced by the presence of a regulated futures market, which the SEC considered a key factor in its decision.

However, CME Group quickly removed the web page, saying its appearance was an error. This raised more questions than answers about whether the derivatives giant is actively considering futures contracts for these assets or if it was simply a technical error.

Seniority May Decide the Next Crypto ETF Contender

XRP and Solana (SOL) are two of the most established digital assets, both ranking in the top 10 by market capitalization and trading volume. XRP benefits from a passionate and supportive community, while Solana has positioned itself as a prominent player in decentralized finance and has gained recognition as a leader in memecoin trading. But sometimes, seniority matters. According to Bloomberg’s Seyffart, Litecoin, a cryptocurrency launched in 2011, may be first in line for a spot ETF.

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XRP vs. Solana: The Next Crypto ETF Approval Race