CoinEx News: Bitcoin recovered to around $64,200 on August 18, up from roughly $62,850 a day earlier, but remained inside the narrow range that has defined trading over the past two weeks. Bitcoin’s DVOL volatility index stood near 35, indicating that options traders were pricing in relatively muted near-term price swings. At the same time, the US 10-year Treasury yield had risen to about 4.72% and the US Dollar Index was near 99.7, showing that broader financial conditions remained restrictive. Bitcoin has absorbed these macro headwinds without breaking down, but it has not attracted enough demand to confirm an upside trend, leaving the market compressed inside its recent range.

The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its July 28–29 policy meeting on August 19. At that meeting, officials voted 9–3 to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, with three members preferring a quarter-percentage-point increase. Traders will look for signs that concern over energy-driven inflation and supply shocks extended beyond those three dissenters, as well as clues about what would justify a September policy change. A broader preference for tighter policy would reinforce upward pressure on Treasury yields and the dollar, creating a tougher backdrop for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s low-volatility regime deserves attention. Fundstrat reviewed eight comparable periods and found that Bitcoin’s median absolute price change over the following 60 days was 30.2%; four periods ended higher and four ended lower. The finding points to the potential size of the next move. Spot demand remains the key confirmation: US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $385 million in combined net outflows from August 10–14, while total crypto futures open interest declined from roughly $48.4 billion to $47.4 billion, showing that leverage cooled as Bitcoin rebounded.

The base case for the coming week is continued range trading followed by volatility expansion around the Fed minutes and ETF flows, rather than an immediate 30% move. Holding the $62,300–$63,000 area, a return to positive daily ETF flows, and a break above $66,000 would open a test of Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average near $69,500. A daily close below $62,300, alongside a US 10-year yield holding above 4.7% and continued ETF outflows, would invalidate the current recovery setup and put $60,000 back in focus.