Monthly Outlook (April 2025)

In April 2025, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market staged a resilient comeback amid shifting macro and regulatory dynamics. A 90-day pause on U.S. reciprocal tariffs sparked renewed risk appetite, propelling Bitcoin above $90,000 and lifting market sentiment. Meanwhile, gold's surging appeal across Web2 and Web3, the emergence of Bitcoin staking innovations, and the rise of high-speed EVM chains like Monad highlighted the ecosystem’s evolving depth. Stablecoin inflows remained elevated, though without explosive growth, hinting at a potential near-term consolidation phase before the next leg higher.

Market Overview: Bitcoin’s Tariff Pause-Driven Rally

Early in April, Bitcoin dropped to a low of $74,500 amid fears of escalating U.S. tariffs which triggered a broad market sell-off. On April 9, Trump paused most reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, setting a 10% base rate for non-retaliating countries, while hiking China’s tariff to 125%. This policy shift alleviated market concerns, triggering a rally in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin surged 7% within 24 hours, reaching $82,350 by April 10, and later reclaimed $90,000, peaking at $96,000 by April 25. Despite late-month consolidation, BTC closed the month up 14%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500’s 1.5% loss. The confirmation of Paul Atkins as SEC Chair on April 9 further bolstered sentiment, signaling a potentially more crypto-friendly regulatory environment. However, investors should remain cautious, as macroeconomic uncertainties and tariff-related developments could reintroduce volatility.

Technical Analysis: Charts You May Concern

Bitcoin’s price action reflects a strong bullish breakout above a descending trendline, entering a $90,000–$108,000 range. Without a significant catalyst, BTC may consolidate sideways within this zone, with support near $90,000 and resistance at $100,000.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin Dominance broke out from a symmetrical triangle, reaching a four-year high of 64%. This suggests continued outperformance over altcoins, which remain subdued. However, failure to sustain above 64% could trigger a retracement to 60%, potentially creating opportunities for altcoin outperformance. Investors should monitor key support levels and dominance trends to gauge market rotation dynamics.

Gold in Web2 vs. Web3: A Comparative Analysis

Gold has regained its safe-haven appeal in 2025, climbing to a new all-time high of over $3,400/oz, driven by escalating global geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties. While ETF products in traditional financial markets, such as SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares Gold Trust (IAU), are more accessible, liquid, and regulated, the Web3 space also offers innovative gold exposure to crypto enthusiasts without requiring conversion back into fiat. The two most common solutions are XAUT and PAXG, gold-backed stablecoins in the Web3 ecosystem. We have outlined a comparison table below to highlight the differences between gold products in both Web2 and Web3 spaces.

While blockchain-based gold products enable 24/7 trading and access to DeFi yields, their combined market capitalization ($2 billion) remains a tiny fraction of traditional gold ETFs ($190 billion). Despite potential short-term corrections due to overbought conditions, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, with forecasts targeting $4,000/oz by year-end amid persistent global geopolitical and economic risks.

Bitcoin Staking and Restaking: Unlocking New Yield Opportunities

Bitcoin’s proof-of-work design precludes native staking, but DeFi protocols have introduced innovative solutions to generate yield. In Q1 2025, the Bitcoin (BTC) staking and restaking ecosystem experienced significant evolution, with related projects such as Babylon, Solv Protocol, PumpBTC, and Lorenzo Protocol launching their tokens one after another.

Babylon’s protocol enables secure, self-custodied BTC staking to support decentralized networks, while Lombard, Lorenzo Protocol, and PumpBTC offer liquid staking derivatives built on Babylon’s infrastructure. These developments allow BTC holders to earn passive income without converting to other assets, enhancing Bitcoin’s utility in DeFi. However, investors should assess protocol risks, including smart contract vulnerabilities and centralization concerns, before participating.

Ecosystem Spotlight: Monad’s Scalability Breakthrough

Just nine weeks after launching its testnet, Monad has seen explosive early momentum — over 16.48 million contracts deployed and 210 million wallets created by the end of April. These numbers highlight Monad as one of the most promising ecosystems currently gaining traction.

Positioning itself as a high-performance, Ethereum-compatible Layer 1, Monad tackles scalability with parallel execution and pipelined processing, targeting 10,000+ TPS and 1-second finality. Its EVM bytecode compatibility eases developer migration, already drawing over 100 early-stage projects across DeFi, NFTs, and infrastructure.

Strategic partnerships (e.g., Axelar) and grant programs for tooling underscore Monad's push for interoperability and ecosystem expansion. A vibrant 200,000-strong developer community is forming, with hackathons fueling real-time use cases like sports betting and MEV-resistant DEX designs. Backing from Paradigm and Dragonfly Capital signals strong institutional confidence in Monad’s “EVM+” roadmap

For a deeper dive, please refer to our recently published article, “From Hype to Reality: Can Monad’s Testnet Success Translate into Mainnet Value?”

Stablecoin Inflows: Sustained but Not Explosive

Stablecoin inflows remained robust in April, with a net inflow of $64.8B, slightly below March’s levels but indicative of sustained capital entering the crypto market. Concurrently, Bitcoin and altcoin prices recovered, and market sentiment shifted from fear to cautious optimism. However, the absence of accelerated inflows suggests the market may be entering a consolidation phase rather than a new growth cycle. Investors should watch stablecoin flow trends as a leading indicator of market momentum, particularly if inflows rebound to March levels.

Economic Data & Events to Watch in May 2025

Disclaimer

The content provided in this report is for illustrative purposes only and is intended to offer insights into the cryptocurrency market. It is not, and should not be interpreted as, investment advice or recommendations. The information contained herein is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed reflect a judgment at the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Readers are advised to conduct their own research and due diligence and, where appropriate, seek professional advice before making any investment decisions. The authors and publishers of this report accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the use of the information provided.

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