Monthly Outlook (June 2025)

Bitcoin weathered a geopolitical storm in June, plunging from $105,000 to $98,200 amid Israel-Iran tensions before staging a recovery to nearly $108,000 by month-end. Circle's spectacular IPO debut stole the spotlight, soaring from a $31 offering price to $180 and achieving a $40 billion valuation, potentially igniting a crypto IPO wave. The RWA sector continued its meteoric rise with 85%+ year-to-date growth reaching $23 billion, bolstered by landmark regulatory developments including the Senate's GENIUS Act passage and global stablecoin frameworks. Stablecoin issuance rebounded to $5 billion, preserving bull market structure.

Market Overview: Bitcoin Battles Geopolitics

The month began with BTC trading around $105,000 but faced sharp declines due to escalating geopolitical tensions, dropping as low as $98,200 on June 22 following U.S. military airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. This marked Bitcoin’s lowest point in nearly seven weeks, with a daily decline exceeding 5%. However, a ceasefire announcement between Iran and Israel on June 24 spurred a rapid recovery, with BTC trading just below $108,000 by the end of June, supported by a bullish daily uptrend.

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in June, with the dot plot forecasting two potential rate cuts in 2025. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized economic resilience but noted inflation remained above the 2% target, with new U.S. tariffs potentially adding upward pressure. The approaching deadline for the U.S.-China tariff agreements added uncertainty, with potential trade war escalation contributing to a risk-off sentiment.

Source: Federal Reserve Board; Data as of 18 June 2025

Technical Analysis: Charts You May Concern

Due to global risk events, Bitcoin underwent a deep correction in June. It has now returned to the upper boundary of its trading range, attempting a new breakout. There is a high likelihood that it will choose a direction in the near term. If the breakout fails, it may retest the red support line near $10,500.

BTC Dominance maintained an upward trend throughout June, with no signs of weakening. The return of altseason still appears to be a distant prospect.

Circle’s IPO: A Benchmark for Success

Circle’s IPO was a resounding success, raising $1.05 billion at $31 each, above the expected range of $27–$28. The stock opened at $69, peaked at $103.75, and closed at $83.23 on its first trading day, achieving a market capitalization of $18.4 billion. It was trading at around $180 near the month end, translating into a market capitalization of $40 billion. 

Circle’s success has sparked speculation that other crypto-native companies may follow suit, with firms like Gemini, Kraken, Bullish, BitGo, Consensys, and Chainalysis cited as potential IPO candidates. In our view, a “crypto IPO boom” could emerge in 2025 and 2026, driven by favorable market conditions and regulatory tailwinds.

RWA: Real-World Assets Accelerate On-Chain Penetration

Real-World Assets (RWA) have solidified their role as a vital bridge connecting traditional finance and decentralized finance by 2025. The total on-chain RWA market cap (excluding stablecoins) has surged past $23 billion, reflecting an impressive 85%+ year-to-date growth. When stablecoins are included, we observe the tokenized real-world asset market scaling beyond $200 billion. Ethereum continues to lead the RWA landscape, capturing a commanding 59% market share. Notably, BlackRock’s BUIDL fund, which has grown to $2.7 billion, stands out as a key driver of RWA total value locked expansion.

Global Regulation: New Playbooks for Stablecoins

On June 17, 2025, the U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act with strong bipartisan support (68-30), advancing the bill to the House of Representatives for further review. Introduced as part of a broader initiative to bolster U.S. financial leadership, the GENIUS Act promotes innovation in dollar-backed stablecoins by setting market value thresholds for regulatory oversight, mandating full reserve backing, and ensuring redemption rights for stablecoin holders.

Globally, the stablecoin market is evolving rapidly, driven by clearer regulatory frameworks and enhanced compliance standards. On December 30, 2024, the European Union fully implemented the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework. MiCA’s stringent reserve requirements aim to ensure financial stability and foster innovation. Similarly, on May 21, 2025, Hong Kong enacted a stablecoin regulatory framework to strengthen oversight and align with global standards, reflecting a broader trend toward robust digital asset regulation.

Stablecoins Rebound to $5B, Supporting Bull Market Structure

Despite heightened macro and geopolitical risks this month, the decline in stablecoin issuance has come to a halt after several consecutive months, rebounding to the $5 billion level. We believe this has preserved the structure of the bull market and supported the depth of capital within the market. However, it’s worth noting that the primary use cases for stablecoins may be gradually shifting—from trading and speculation toward payments. As a result, the effectiveness of this indicator in the current cycle could be affected, and we will continue to monitor this trend closely.

Economic Data & Events to Watch in July 2025

Disclaimer

The content provided in this report is for illustrative purposes only and is intended to offer insights into the cryptocurrency market. It is not, and should not be interpreted as, investment advice or recommendations. The information contained herein is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed reflect a judgment at the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Readers are advised to conduct their own research and due diligence and, where appropriate, seek professional advice before making any investment decisions. The authors and publishers of this report accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the use of the information provided.

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