CoinEx Monthly - Uptober Faded; November Reloaded

Bitcoin broke its seven-year "Uptober" streak with a 3.8% loss, closing at $109,600 after hitting a $126,100 ATH. Trump's 100% China tariff announcement on October 11 triggered a 16% flash-crash, which in turn caused history's largest $19B liquidation cascade. Despite the turmoil, underlying fundamentals suggest resilience. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points and announced the end of quantitative tightening effective December 1. Stablecoin inflows remained robust at $11 billion, indicating capital remains on the sidelines rather than exiting, and the x402 payment standard saw explosive adoption with 3.18 million transactions. Markets now look to November, which historically delivers 42% average gains, as a potential catalyst for recovery.

Uptober Cancelled but Easing might be Coming

Bitcoin's much-anticipated "Uptober" rally faded, marking its first monthly loss since 2018 with a roughly 3.8% decline to close around $109,600, snapping a seven-year winning streak. Bitcoin surged to a record $126,100 early in the month on the back of institutional inflows and Fed easing expectations but plunged over 16% to $102,200 on October 11 amid the tariff-induced liquidation cascade that wiped out $19 billion in leveraged positions. Despite the volatility, on-chain activity rose and leverage normalized; analysts eye November's historical 42% average gain as a potential rebound catalyst.

The U.S. Federal Reserve continued its easing cycle amid a softening labor market and a month-long government shutdown that delayed key data releases, complicating policymakers' assessments. On October 29, the FOMC voted 10-2 to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%-4% range, the second consecutive reduction, prioritizing employment risks over persistent inflation above the 2% target. Concurrently, the Fed announced the end of quantitative tightening (QT) effective December 1, halting the balance sheet drawdown from a peak of nearly $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion, as money market liquidity tightened and repo facility usage surged, signaling ample but not abundant reserves.

Key Charts to Watch

Amid an uncertain macro environment this month, BTC failed to break through the mid-range resistance level around $115,000, and is now testing the lower boundary of its consolidation range. If it breaks below this level, it may retest the $101,600 area (marked by the red support line).

In a weak market environment, capital tends to concentrate on the strongest narratives. This month, ZEC has significantly broken above its previous high and entered a price discovery phase. After testing the $390 area, it may attempt another upward move.

Biggest Wipeout in Crypto History

On October 11, 2025, the cryptocurrency market experienced its largest liquidation event in history, with over $19 billion in leveraged positions wiped out in a matter of hours, primarily affecting long bets on Bitcoin and Ethereum. The trigger was U.S. President Donald Trump's late Friday announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports and export controls on software, reigniting global trade war fears and spilling over from a broader Wall Street sell-off. This caused Bitcoin to plummet over 13% in one hour, dropping below $110,000, and Ether to fall under $3,700, erasing approximately $370 billion from the total crypto market cap and impacting over 1.6 million traders.

The cascade also exposed vulnerabilities in exchange infrastructure, including oracle pricing flaws on platforms like Binance, where assets like USDe, wBETH and BNSOL de-pegged dramatically, amplifying forced sales and liquidity evaporation across centralized and decentralized venues. While some analyses suggest elements of a coordinated oracle manipulation attack, the event ultimately reset overleveraged positions to July 2025 levels, with open interest dropping $65 billion. Prices partially rebounded by October 12, but the incident underscored the market's fragility amid geopolitical shocks and high leverage usage.

The Spawn of x402

x402 is an open payment standard based on HTTP status code 402 (Payment Required), jointly proposed by companies like Coinbase and Cloudflare. Its goal is to provide native on-chain payment channels at the internet protocol layer, particularly suited for micropayment needs in the AI economy era.

In October, x402 experienced explosive growth in transaction volume and user numbers, primarily driven by the memecoin frenzy such as the $PING inscription-style issuance. According to x402scan data, there were approximately 3.18 million transactions in October, with a cumulative payment amount of about 3.48 million USD, demonstrating rapid expansion on the user side. Although speculative activities are prevalent in the current ecosystem, this "stress testing" also paves the way for protocol improvements, toolchain enhancements, and future compliant applications.

Stablecoin Inflows Against the Trend

Amid a range-bound market, stablecoins have continued to see strong inflows this month (around $11B). This suggests that the market hasn’t turned pessimistic, and capital is still flowing in. We believe that most funds are currently on the sidelines, waiting for the right entry opportunity.

Economic Data & Events to Watch in November 2025

Disclaimer

The content provided in this report is for illustrative purposes only and is intended to offer insights into the cryptocurrency market. It is not, and should not be interpreted as, investment advice or recommendations. The information contained herein is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed reflect a judgment at the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Readers are advised to conduct their own research and due diligence and, where appropriate, seek professional advice before making any investment decisions. The authors and publishers of this report accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the use of the information provided.

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