CoinEx Monthly - Wrapped Gifts; Unwrapped Liquidity

December felt less like a Santa rally and more like a market stuck waiting for clearer instructions from the North Pole. Bitcoin played the role of the stoic reindeer, holding formation and showing early signs of bottoming despite macro fog and policy uncertainty, while Ether lagged even as Ethereum quietly shipped the Fusaka upgrade beneath the tree. The Fed delivered its expected rate-cut gift, but the lack of forward guidance and liquidity conditions remain constrained, reinforcing a cautious, range-bound environment rather than a trend reversal. Gold and silver dominated the macro landscape, reflecting a defensive regime driven by debasement and geopolitical risk. Encouragingly, stablecoin inflows stabilized, suggesting no panic under the Christmas light, and while this wasn’t the rally many hoped for, the market appears to be calmly setting the sleigh for a potentially stronger start to the new year once real liquidity returns.

Rate cuts are in, Direction is not

After hitting a local bottom around $80,500 in late November, Bitcoin staged a recovery to hover between $86,000 and $88,000 by year-end. Despite a 30% drop from its October peak, it remains the preferred institutional anchor. Meanwhile, Ether faced a tougher month, trading within a downward channel and struggling to break resistance at $3,080. 

On Dec 10, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points (the third cut of 2025) to approximately 3.6%. The Fed faces significant internal divisions, resulting in the updated "dot plot" showing a wide dispersion of views and no clear consensus on the path for interest rates in 2026. While the median projection suggests only one rate cut next year, the actual rate trajectory remains contingent on the two main factors influencing monetary policy: inflation and the labor market. 

On the balance sheet side, quantitative tightening officially ended earlier this month, naturally prompting market expectations around quantitative easing. However, the Fed’s recently announced purchases of short-term Treasuries, so-called Reserve Management Purchases (RMP), should not be interpreted as quantitative easing. These operations are designed to manage money market liquidity and ensure the smooth functioning of the interbank system, rather than to provide broad-based monetary stimulus. If genuine quantitative easing were to be introduced, we expect that decision to be left to the new Fed leadership in the second half of 2026.

Key Charts to Watch

$BTC: Shows Signs of Bottoming, Though Trend Reversal Remains Distant

BTC remained weak this month but avoided further sharp declines, recording a monthly drop of approximately -1.88%. It is currently oscillating within the lower band of the $84,000 - $92,000 range. Notably, the daily chart has broken above the bearish trend line (blue). We believe prices are gradually bottoming out and may rebound to test overhead resistance following a period of consolidation. However, caution is advised: this is likely a rebound, not a full reversal. A true trend reversal typically requires a longer period of consolidation and repeated testing of resistance levels.

$ZEC: Strong Rebound, Yet Reversal Remains Unconfirmed

Despite $ZEC recording a 78% gain this month, fundamentals have not kept pace. As a privacy coin, its key indicator — Shielded Tx volume — has remained stagnant, showing no sign of an uptrend. Given this divergence, we believe $ZEC currently lacks the necessary momentum to break through previous highs, and short-term pullback risks should be monitored. However, we maintain an optimistic outlook for the long term.

Precious Metals: The Winners of Debasement Trade

2025 is essentially a year of the metal. Gold and silver both played their traditional role as macro hedges, benefiting from elevated geopolitical uncertainty, trade tensions, and late-cycle policy ambiguity. While real yields remained range-bound, investor demand for non-sovereign stores of value stayed resilient, particularly as markets reassessed the long-term credibility of fiscal discipline and monetary neutrality.

Gold (XAU): Gold capped off its best year since 1979, surging roughly 70% for the year. In December, it touched all-time highs near $4,550/oz before a late-month correction brought it back to the $4,340 range. The rally was fueled by a perfect storm of geopolitical tension (specifically US-China trade friction) and a weakening US Dollar.

Silver (XAG): Silver was the breakout star, outperforming almost every major asset class with a staggering 140%+ annual return. In late December, silver briefly cleared the $80/oz mark. Unlike gold, silver’s rally was driven by a supply deficit in industrial sectors like AI data centers, solar energy, and EVs, coupled with new export restrictions from China.

The XAU/BTC breakout confirms a defensive macro regime where gold is the preferred hedge, while Bitcoin remains capped until real liquidity conditions ease. History suggests that when gold's momentum stalls after a massive run, Bitcoin often acts as the "sequel," catching the overflow of liquidity as investors look for the next scarce asset with higher upside potential.

Ethereum Ships Fusaka 

On December 3, 2025, the Ethereum network successfully activated the Fusaka upgrade, marking a pivotal step in Ethereum’s “The Surge” roadmap. This upgrade aims to provide a more robust foundation for Layer 2 (L2) scaling through technical innovations and optimizations to the economic model. The core of Fusaka is the introduction of the PeerDAS mechanism (EIP-7594), which fundamentally resolves data availability bottlenecks by allowing nodes to verify only portions of data blocks. This unlocks theoretically exponential scaling potential for L2 solutions. To ensure network stability, the increase in blob storage capacity adopts a progressive ramp-up strategy, incrementally and securely raising the number of blobs via phased deployments.

Beyond enhancements to scaling capacity, the Fusaka upgrade significantly deepens Ethereum’s economic model, with the most notable addition being the introduction of the blob minimum base fee mechanism (EIP-7918). This mechanism establishes a floor price for blob data storage to prevent blob fees from dropping to near-zero levels during periods of low network demand. By effectively mitigating excessive volatility in L2 transaction costs, the minimum base fee ensures that the Ethereum protocol can consistently capture stable revenue from data availability services.

Stablecoin Flows Stabilize; No Signs of Panic Selling 

In contrast to the precipitous decline seen in November, stablecoin liquidity has improved this month, recording a net inflow of $2.4 billion. Significant capital outflows have not materialized, suggesting that despite weak price action and pessimistic social media sentiment, underlying liquidity conditions are not as dire as surface-level indicators might imply.

We believe the market is validating the "Bull Case" outlined in our November report: stablecoin inflows have ceased to decline and are even maintaining a modest growth rate. Based on this assessment, the current correction phase may be shortened (potentially concluding within the quarter), with the market trajectory possibly replicating the recovery path observed in May 2024.

Economic Data & Events to Watch in January 2026

Disclaimer

The content provided in this report is for illustrative purposes only and is intended to offer insights into the cryptocurrency market. It is not, and should not be interpreted as, investment advice or recommendations. The information contained herein is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed reflect a judgment at the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Readers are advised to conduct their own research and due diligence and, where appropriate, seek professional advice before making any investment decisions. The authors and publishers of this report accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the use of the information provided.

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