BlockBeats News, May 7th, "BTC OG Whale Insider" agent Garrett Jin published an article titled "Disguised Truce," pointing out that while the market appears calm on the surface, underlying risks are accumulating, and traders should not let their guard down. Following Trump's recent state visit to China (April 14th to 15th), the US-Iran military conflict may reignite at any time. A truce is not the start of good news, but a delay in the escalation of real conflict.

Currently, the market seems optimistic on the surface: Saudi Arabia and Iran signed a 14-point memorandum, Apple's Q3 guidance significantly exceeded expectations, AMD's data center revenue hit a new high, South Korean stocks reached a record high, and Bitcoin is approaching 82-83k, but the risk sentiment remains.

However, credit in the market's foundation has begun to weaken: Data analytics company Qualtrics planned a large transaction but found no takers; US Spirit Airlines recently filed for bankruptcy, a clear signal of the challenges faced by low-cost carriers; banks are concerned about the escalation of a US-Iran war and have preemptively set aside bad debt reserves to prepare for potential war risks. Berkshire's cash reserves have hit a record high, and so on.

Garrett Jin believes that the US-Iran false peace will be stretched until it breaks. The end of May may be a potential turning point, but if the tech giants continue to outperform expectations, the market's good performance may continue until the July earnings season, postponing the risk window accordingly.