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Weekly Macro Outlook: US-Iran Negotiations Enter Key Window, Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate Data on the Horizon
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BlockBeats News, June 1st, regarding the US-Iran ceasefire agreement and the Strait of Hormuz opening issue, Trump stated that the agreement is close to being reached and demanded Iran to give up its nuclear weapons capability and open the Strait of Hormuz; however, Iran denied having approved the final agreement text, emphasizing that there are still disagreements on related arrangements. US Secretary of Defense Hedges warned that if the negotiations fail, the US is ready to resume military action against Iran. If both the US and Iran can further confirm a ceasefire extension or reach a phase one agreement next week, risk assets may continue to benefit, while oil prices and safe-haven assets may face a new directional choice.

On a macro level, the US will welcome key economic data such as May non-farm payrolls and the May unemployment rate after the season adjustment this week. At the same time, several Federal Reserve officials will speak out, and the market will further assess the balance between the US economic slowdown and inflation pressure, as well as changes in the future interest rate path. The key focus times are as follows:

Monday

11:00, NVIDIA GTC Taipei 2026 Conference opens, with Jensen Huang delivering a keynote speech.

Tuesday

13:50, 2026 FOMC Voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari speak;

20:30, 2026 FOMC Voter and Cleveland Fed President Mester speak on monetary policy; 22:00, US April JOLTs Job Openings;

Wednesday

20:15, US May ADP Employment Change; 22:00, US May ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI;

Thursday

02:00, Fed releases Beige Book;

20:30, US Initial Jobless Claims up to May 30th;

Friday

01:10, San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks; 20:30, US May Non-Farm Payrolls after Season Adjustment, US May Unemployment Rate.

Meanwhile, AI remains a core theme driving the global risk asset rally. As the corporate earnings season draws to a close, the market will continue to focus on the performance of companies like CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, Broadcom, etc., to observe whether the AI investment frenzy can continue to spread to more industries. After the US stock market ended May at historic highs, the market will also face the traditional "June Curse" test. In a midterm election year, June is historically the worst-performing month for US stocks, with investors generally expecting the market to enter a short-term consolidation phase.

Fuente:BlockBeats

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