BlockBeats News, August 5th. The global market continued to see strong performance in risk assets, but what is truly driving the fund flows is no longer just corporate earnings reports or AI-related themes. It is now the simultaneous involvement of governments in energy, exchange rates, supply chains, and monetary policy, leading to a market reassessment of institutional credibility and policy execution.

AI capital expenditure remains the most important growth engine in the market. Anthropic and Volta Infra have signed a computing service agreement worth as much as $10 billion, coupled with Samsung's launch of the next-generation V10 V-NAND, significantly increasing storage density, once again demonstrating that AI infrastructure is still in a rapid expansion phase. The market continues to be willing to pay a premium for computing power, storage, and semiconductor supply chain, indicating that companies are still willing to bear higher capital costs in exchange for future competitive advantages. However, Federal Reserve officials have simultaneously sent out a more hawkish signal, believing that the current interest rate level is still insufficient to effectively contain inflation, creating a scenario where AI investment coexists with a high-interest-rate environment. In the future, the market will pay more attention to whether companies have enough cash flow and profit capabilities to support massive capital expenditures, rather than relying solely on valuation expansion to drive stock prices higher.

Another notable change comes from the energy market. Substantial progress has been made in the Strait of Hormuz negotiations, the US-Iran agreement is gradually taking shape, and discussions have even begun on European participation in mine clearance and the establishment of a joint maintenance mechanism, showing that all parties have gradually transitioned from military confrontation to negotiation on maritime order and energy governance. If the strait resumes normal navigation in the future, even with increased maintenance costs, they will be much lower than the supply risk brought by war, and the risk premium in the energy market is expected to continue to decline. Meanwhile, the US government is considering extending exemptions under the "Jones Act," further using administrative tools to lower domestic energy costs, reflecting that energy prices are no longer just an economic issue but directly affect political support rates and policy stability.

In addition, the Bank of Japan has not intervened in the forex market yet, but US Treasury Secretary Bennett has publicly stated that necessary measures will be taken to support the Japanese Yen, indicating that the exchange rate is gradually becoming part of the policy toolkit rather than being entirely market-driven. On the other hand, the US continues to study expanding metal tariffs, indicating that supply chain protection policies will persist, and global manufacturing costs and inflationary pressures are still unlikely to dissipate completely in the short term.

Although Michael Burry has once again warned that the market may experience a crash reminiscent of 1987, his view is more based on structural risks formed by market leverage and volatility compression, rather than a fundamental deterioration. It is worth noting that while the US stock market hits new highs, the VIX is also rising simultaneously, indicating that the market is not completely ignoring potential risks but is driving asset prices up through options hedging and leveraged trading. This structure implies that as long as AI capital expenditure, corporate earnings, and policy credibility can be maintained, the market still has an upward foundation; however, if inflation rekindles, the Fed further tightens policy, or the Hormuz negotiations are once again hindered, overvalued tech stocks and high-leverage strategies will become the main sources of renewed volatility expansion.

In the short term, the market's attention will focus on whether the Strait of Hormuz agreement is formally reached, the latest comments from Federal Reserve officials on the interest rate path, and whether investment in AI infrastructure continues to accelerate. These three themes will jointly determine a new balance between global cost of capital, energy prices, and tech valuations, and will also become a key basis for pricing risk assets in the future.