BlockBeats News, August 6th. In the United States, the July ADP Employment Report showed an increase of 44,000 jobs, indicating a continued cooling off of the labor market. However, Federal Reserve officials have repeatedly expressed a hawkish stance. Kashkari, Quarles, and Daly all emphasized that if inflation does not show sustained improvement, further interest rate hikes are not ruled out. This has made the market realize once again that an economic slowdown does not immediately lead to a shift towards loose monetary policy.

At the same time, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced that it will maintain the pace of treasury buybacks and issuance, indicating that the market will need to continue absorbing a significant amount of U.S. government debt supply in the short term. With long-term bond yields remaining in the higher range, it also means that the financial environment is still tightening through market mechanisms. What truly affects global asset valuations is not only whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, but also the government's massive financing needs, long-term interest rates, and market risk premium, all of which are collectively driving up the global cost of capital.

On the geopolitical front, although Iran and Oman are close to reaching an agreement on the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz, the passage is still under a temporary arrangement, and whether full navigation will be restored depends on the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations. Even as the risk of supply disruptions has somewhat decreased, Iran's attempts to gain more control over the waterway and charging rights indicate that the uncertainty in the global energy supply chain has not been resolved. Energy prices may still experience fluctuations due to policy and negotiation processes.

From a market structure perspective, global funds are currently facing an environment where high cost of capital, continuous government financing, AI infrastructure expansion, and energy geopolitical risks coexist. Fund allocation will pay more attention to capital efficiency and cash flow quality, while assets with high valuations and leverage will continue to face significant discounting pressure. In the cryptocurrency market, there was a net inflow of $475 million into ETFs in the past week and a net inflow of $922 million in the past month, indicating that short-term institutional funds are still replenishing risk assets. However, there has been a net outflow of $7.932 billion in the past quarter, showing that large funds maintain a relatively conservative stance towards the overall market. This also means that the market is not currently experiencing a widespread increase in risk appetite but is instead continuously seeking a new asset pricing balance between global liquidity, long-term yields, and policy uncertainty. In the short term, Bitcoin will still be influenced by U.S. dollar liquidity, global cost of capital, and changes in risk appetite. Whether ETF funds will gradually shift from short-term replenishment to trend inflows will be a key indicator to watch for in the upcoming market trends.