BlockBeats News, September 3rd, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in a recent article that his current macro trade "North Star" is the Euro to Japanese Yen (EURJPY), with the exchange rate expected to drop from the current level of around 185 to 140 or lower by June next year. He believes that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is pushing for a weaker dollar against the yen, while also guiding policies to attract capital back to Japan and other Asian countries, putting pressure on European assets. Hayes mentioned that France is facing a high fiscal deficit, increasing government debt, and a reliance on foreign capital, making it the most vulnerable part of the Eurozone, with French banks and the bond market potentially facing continued outflow pressure.

Hayes further pointed out that Japanese companies are required to accelerate the repatriation of overseas funds, which will strengthen the yen and may lead to Japanese and other Asian investors reducing their European asset holdings. As French government bonds and bank debt face sell-offs, French banks, especially those globally systemically important, may reduce their repo market financing activities. Once French banks retreat from part of the repo market, it may raise U.S. Treasury financing costs and force hedge funds to deleverage, thereby compelling the New York Fed to expand repo market operations (RMP), potentially accelerating the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion to nearly $10 billion per month.

Hayes believes that these series of changes will ultimately form a "taper first, water later" liquidity chain: the EURJPY decline will serve as a leading indicator of heightened risks for French banks and the imminent expansion of dollar liquidity; the Federal Reserve increasing dollar supply through RMP and FIMA repo mechanisms may further drive global fiat liquidity growth. He stated that the crypto market will be one of the fastest beneficiaries of this liquidity expansion, advising investors to consider EURJPY put options while maintaining a structural long position on Bitcoin. Hayes also reiterated his price targets by the end of 2026, expecting Ethereum (ETH) to reach $10,000, Ethena (ENA) to reach $0.5, and ETHFI to reach $2.