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BlockBeats News, May 20th - Analyst Murphy (@Murphychen888) posted on social media that from May 15th to 19th, Bitcoin had experienced five consecutive days of decline. The market sentiment, previously concerned about a possible long squeeze, quickly shifted, with some investors now expecting the price to fall back to the $40,000 to $50,000 range.
However, looking at the on-chain chip structure, the attitude of large funds presents a different picture. Based on data from May 15th, $66,000 and $78,000 were the two most concentrated price levels in terms of turnover, clearly reflecting the entry positions of large funds. It is worth noting that the chip column in the $80,000 to $82,000 range is relatively short. Despite Bitcoin's price staying in this range for almost a week, the turnover is low, indicating that once the price returned above $80,000, funds became more cautious. By May 19th, as the price dropped, the chip column at $78,000 not only did not decrease but actually increased. The most significant change was at the $76,000 price level. When the price previously broke through this level, there were only about 200,000 chips, but when the price fell back to this level this time, the chips had increased to about 380,000.
Analysis suggests that this indicates that the funds entering at $78,000 did not panic sell when the cost basis was breached. When the price dropped to $76,000, new funds chose to enter and take over, showing a clear attitude.
From the chip structure perspective, the reasonable pullback range is roughly between $78,000 and $66,000. A secondary retracement into this range and completion of turnover is expected to make the structure more resilient. Although the exact price bottom is still difficult to predict, judging from the attitude of funds starting to intervene around $76,000, the market's willingness to take over at the downside appears to be clear.
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