BlockBeats News, June 17th. The core narrative of the global market is gradually shifting from the "End of the Middle East War" to the "Asset Revaluation in the Post-War Era." Details of the US-Iran Understanding Memorandum continue to be exposed, including the lifting of the oil export ban, unfreezing of assets, and a plan for a private investment fund of up to $300 billion. The market has begun to trade in anticipation of Iran's possible reentry into the global energy and capital markets. However, the actual pace of the Strait of Hormuz's recovery still faces uncertainty. European allies are cautious about mine clearance and escort operations, and shipping companies generally believe that full resumption of normal passage may take several weeks or even longer, indicating that while geopolitical risks have decreased, they have not completely disappeared.

The energy market has already begun to reflect this change. With the US possibly allowing Iran to immediately resume oil exports, about 68 million barrels of Iranian oil stranded at sea are waiting to re-enter the market. Coupled with the expiration of Russian oil waivers, the global energy supply landscape is being reorganized. In the short term, Iran's increased production will help lower oil prices and shipping costs. Still, if Russian exports are restricted again, the energy market may face a new round of supply and demand tug-of-war in the future. This is also why gold demand has not cooled significantly due to peace expectations. A survey by the World Gold Council shows that more and more central banks are continuing to increase their gold reserves, reflecting the long-term defensive needs of central banks around the world against geopolitical and global debt risks that have not changed.

At the same time, there is a clear differentiation in global central bank policies. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 1%, the highest level in 31 years, but simultaneously announced that it would stop further reducing its bond purchases next year. The Reserve Bank of Australia, after consecutive rate hikes, has paused its rate hikes for the first time. This indicates that central banks around the world have begun to enter a new stage of "maintaining high interest rates for longer but avoiding rapid liquidity contraction." The real focus of the market is on the debut of the new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at tonight's first FOMC meeting. Recent Castle Securities, academic surveys, or market pricing all indicate that the market's expectations are gradually shifting from a rate-cut timetable to the reemergence of rate-hike risks. In other words, what the market has been trading in the past two years is a rate-cut schedule, but now it is beginning to trade the possibility of rising funding costs.

It is worth noting that even as expectations of higher interest rates heat up, risk assets continue to attract funds. SpaceX not only completed a $60 billion acquisition of Anysphere but also briefly surpassed Microsoft and Amazon to become the world's fourth-largest market cap company. AI, space technology, and large-scale technology capital expenditure are still accelerating. However, this has also raised market concerns about the imbalance between valuation and liquidity. When the credit market still maintains extremely low spreads and technology companies can finance at extremely low costs, the constraint of high-interest rates on risk assets has not truly manifested.

For the crypto market, the biggest variable is no longer the Middle East but whether Warsh will reduce forward guidance and redefine future financial conditions. If the Federal Reserve only maintains high-interest rates but allows credit to continue expanding, market liquidity may still support the performance of risk assets. However, if the future begins to manage the money supply through balance sheet reduction and credit contraction simultaneously, tech stocks, AI concepts, and the crypto market may face pressure for revaluation. Therefore, while the current market appears to be trading a peace dividend, it is actually awaiting the Federal Reserve's decision on the next direction of global liquidity, the performance of which will continue to reflect the market's true judgment on funding costs and liquidity prospects.