BlockBeats News, July 13th, BTC encountered pressure around $64,000 once again. Currently, short-term attention is on whether it can regain ground above $63,000. If buyers fail to regain dominance, further retracement to the $60,000 psychological support level cannot be ruled out.

This week, the global market will see a series of significant events, including the US June CPI, PPI, retail sales data, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress, and heavyweight corporate earnings reports from JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, TSMC, ASML, Netflix, and others. The market focus is no longer solely on individual economic data points but on whether these events can collectively validate the current "high cost of capital" market environment. The significance of Warsh's first Congressional testimony is even on par with the CPI itself. The market will observe whether he continues his low-key and forward-guidance-avoiding policy style and whether he makes any hints about the recently heated rate hike expectations. Some Fed officials have already started discussing rolling back the rate cuts from last year, and if the June CPI exceeds expectations again, it will further raise the market's expectations for future policy tightening.

On the other hand, the situation in the Middle East has deteriorated once again. Iran has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while the US military continues to conduct airstrikes on Iranian military facilities, with the conflict expanding to multiple Gulf countries. Of note is that what is currently truly impacting global inflation is not just oil prices but the continued disruption of global refining capacity due to the war. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, damage to Middle Eastern refineries, and the shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz have kept global refined oil supplies tight. Even if oil prices fall back, prices of end-use energy products such as gasoline and diesel may remain elevated, making energy inflation stickier than the market expects.

Simultaneously, another significant trend to watch is the AI capital race. Recently, tech giants like NVIDIA, Amazon, and SpaceX have been continuously raising funds for AI infrastructure through large-scale debt issuance, but Wall Street is beginning to show signs of fatigue. The market's concern is not corporate credit but that the supply of new bonds worth hundreds of billions of dollars will continue to drive up corporate financing costs. This implies that while AI investment has not cooled down, the cost of funds is gradually becoming a key limiting factor for the next stage of valuations. It also means that global liquidity is facing a dual competition from government bond issuance and corporate financing needs.

In addition, the Japanese Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) plans to increase its allocation to alternative assets, leading to a rebound in the Japanese Yen, reflecting the ongoing adjustment of asset allocations by global large funds. If the US dollar maintains high rates, Japanese funds flow back, and AI funding demand coexist, global risk assets will continue to face pressure from liquidity reallocation.

Overall, this week the market needs to answer not only whether US inflation is rebounding but also whether the global cost of capital will continue to remain elevated. Against the backdrop of AI's continued absorption of large amounts of funds, ongoing uncertainty in the energy supply chain, and the unclear direction of the Fed's policy, risk assets will continue to be affected by rates, liquidity, and corporate financing capacity. This will also determine whether Bitcoin can retest the area above $64,000 or continue to maintain a consolidating range.