BlockBeats News, August 6th. In the past two days, the international gold price broke out of nearly a month-long consolidation phase, with spot gold briefly rising above $4300 per ounce, setting a new high since early July. This round of gold rebound was driven not by a single factor but by a combination of macroeconomic policy expectations, official demand, institutional funds, and market sentiment.

On the macro front, the U.S. ADP employment report for July showed an increase of only 44,000 jobs, well below market expectations, indicating a continued cooling of the U.S. labor market. Consequently, the market lowered its expectations for further Fed tightening. At the same time, expectations for a rate hike in September in the U.S. significantly cooled, with U.S. bond yields and the dollar both falling simultaneously. The attractiveness of gold as a zero-yield asset allocation has increased again. The market is currently awaiting non-farm payroll data to confirm whether the U.S. economy is further slowing down.

On the geopolitical front, there have been signs of easing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz recently. Diplomatic negotiations among the U.S., Iran, and Oman have made progress, leading the market to anticipate a decline in global energy transportation risks. As a result, international oil prices have fallen, energy inflation expectations have cooled, further weakening market bets on the Fed's continued hawkish policy stance, becoming a key catalyst for the recent rise in gold prices.

Official demand remains the most important long-term support for the gold market. The Bank of Korea announced the resumption of gold purchases after 13 years, initiating not only gold ETF allocations but also plans to establish a mechanism to purchase physical gold in South Korea. Meanwhile, World Gold Council data shows that in the second quarter of 2026, global central banks' net purchases of gold reached 288.9 tons, a 62% year-on-year increase, hitting a historical high for the same period, indicating that global central banks are continuing to promote asset diversification and the strong demand for strategic gold allocations.

In terms of fund flows, Chinese gold ETFs have seen net inflows for 14 consecutive trading days, marking the longest continuous inflow since March this year. Macro funds have been consistently increasing their gold allocations since June, with Asian funds returning to the gold market. Additionally, the Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold price has once again shown a premium over London gold, reflecting a sustained improvement in Asian spot demand and serving as a crucial pillar supporting the stabilization and rebound of gold prices.

Regarding institutional views, several Wall Street institutions continue to maintain a bullish outlook on gold in the medium to long term. Deutsche Bank believes that gold is still in a "breakout phase" since 2024 and maintains a target price of $4600 by the end of 2026. UBS expects that with continued central bank gold purchases, recovering investment demand, and the Fed's policy shift, gold is likely to rise to $4600 by the end of the year and further challenge $5000 in 2027. Institutions such as Citigroup and Dufu Investments also anticipate that with central bank gold purchases and ongoing fund inflows, gold still has room for further medium to long-term upside.