BlockBeats News, August 7th: The US July non-farm payroll report will be released today at 20:30 Beijing time. Wall Street institutions predict a data range from 18,000 to 83,000, showing a significant discrepancy. A Dow Jones survey shows that economists on average expect an addition of 83,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%. Bank of America expects around 80,000 jobs to be added, while Vanguard Group predicts only 18,000. Such a wide range of forecasts reflects the highly inconsistent signals currently being released by the labor market. Market participants believe that if the final data deviates significantly from expectations, the stock, bond, and dollar markets may experience sharp fluctuations.

The unemployment rate remains a key variable of concern for the Federal Reserve. Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave pointed out that if household employment data is strong, the unemployment rate may remain at 4.2%, but if the labor force participation rate increases, the unemployment rate may edge up slightly to 4.3%. If the data shows that the labor market is "all clear," the Fed may raise interest rates a maximum of three times this year, but the federal funds futures market is currently pricing in only one rate hike for the year.

After Fed Chair Powell abandoned forward guidance, the market lacks a clear policy direction, further elevating the importance of economic data as a determining factor in pricing the Fed's future interest rate path.