BlockBeats News, August 14th. On-chain analyst Murphy stated that currently, the majority of the chips acquired in 2025 and held to this day are essentially at a loss. Therefore, apart from wallet migrations, the decrease in the scale of 2025 chips most likely implies that holders will capitulate and sell.

Data shows that as of now, around 4.77 million BTC chips purchased in 2025 are still held, a 41.5% decrease from the peak in December last year. Looking at the declining trend, this group has gone through two phases: a rapid decrease in chips before February of this year, and a significantly slowed-down decline after February, yet still maintaining a certain slope.

Murphy believes that the 2025 chip holders may represent the largest potential supply side in the current market. In contrast, BTC chips formed in 2024, 2023, and 2022 have mostly completed the process of releasing trapped holders at high levels as they still hold unrealized profits, with the downward slope gradually flattening, indicating weakening selling pressure from long-term holders.

Historical data shows that in the final stages of the last two bear markets, high-level chips experienced significant reductions: at the bottom of the 2022 bear market, the chips bought at the peak in 2021 decreased by around 51%; at the bottom of the 2018 bear market, the high-level chips from 2017 decreased by approximately 62%.

Referring to the historical cycles, Murphy believes that in this round of the bear market bottom phase, the reduction in high-level 2025 chips could be in the range of 50% to 60%, with the current 41.5% drop indicating there is still some room for further selling pressure. However, this assessment does not yet consider the BTC bought by spot ETFs and institutions like MicroStrategy, with most of these chips being in a long-term locked state, which may alleviate actual market supply pressure.