CoinEx News: Bitcoin traded near $80,700 on August 25 after reaching an intraday high of approximately $81,160, bringing its seven-day gain to around 26%. BTC has now clearly broken above the $62,000–$67,000 range established since early July and reclaimed its 200-day moving average. CoinEx Research believes Bitcoin has moved beyond the initial bottoming stage and entered an early bullish structure. However, given the speed of the advance, the breakout still requires confirmation through a subsequent pullback.

Spot-market flows support this assessment. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for six consecutive trading sessions from August 17 through August 24, totaling approximately $2.26 billion. The funds attracted another $337.6 million on August 24, when the initial short squeeze had already weakened. This suggests the rally is no longer driven entirely by forced short covering.

The first level to watch is whether $79,000–$80,000 can turn into support. Holding this area would keep $82,500–$85,000 in focus as the next resistance zone. A pullback toward $76,000–$77,000 would remain consistent with normal consolidation, while a sustained break below $72,000–$74,000 would materially weaken the bear-to-bull transition thesis.

The first major macro test arrives on August 26, when the United States releases July personal consumption expenditure inflation data. A higher-than-expected core reading could lift Treasury yields and the dollar, putting pressure on Bitcoin and technology stocks. Nvidia will also release its quarterly results later that day. Because the recent improvement in global risk appetite has partly reflected stabilizing expectations for AI and semiconductor companies, weak guidance from Nvidia could test whether Bitcoin’s relative strength can survive renewed pressure on equities.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak at the Jackson Hole symposium on August 28. Markets will focus on whether he validates expectations for easier monetary policy or continues to emphasize inflation risks and restrictive interest rates. A hawkish message could tighten financial conditions through higher real yields and a stronger dollar, while a more balanced tone would remove one of the main macro risks facing the breakout.

CoinEx Research therefore views Bitcoin’s short- to medium-term bear-to-bull transition as increasingly credible, although a full-cycle bull market has not yet been confirmed. If BTC remains above $76,000–$80,000 following the August 26 inflation release and Nvidia earnings, as well as the Federal Reserve chair’s August 28 speech, the case for a durable bullish reversal will become considerably stronger.