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Opinion: US Stock Short Positions Reach an All-Time High, Bitcoin May See a 'Decoupling Moment'
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BlockBeats News, May 26th. XWIN Research released a report stating that the short position in the U.S. stock market has recently surged to a historical high. However, this does not mean the market is overall bearish. Data shows that the total leverage ratio of hedge funds has risen to about 293%. The short exposure and Days-to-Cover ratio of the S&P 500 have both hit record highs, indicating that institutional investors are maintaining large long positions while significantly increasing their hedge positions. The current market is in a structural state of "high leverage and simultaneous long and short expansion," where the surface trend remains upward, but internal defensive sentiment is notably rising.

The core reason driving this phenomenon is that funds continue to be highly concentrated in AI-related super-weighted stocks. A large amount of capital is flowing into a few tech giants, while mid-cap and weak sectors are facing continued shorting, leading to the index's sustained strength but accumulating internal fragility. This structure implies that once the AI trading frenzy cools down, the market may experience more intense volatility and risk release.

This change also has significant implications for Bitcoin. Historically, BTC has usually moved in sync with the U.S. stock market during major risk events. For example, during the 2020 pandemic-induced crash, Bitcoin dropped along with the S&P 500, failing to demonstrate its traditional safe-haven characteristic. However, since 2025, the two have started to show distinct differentiation: the S&P 500 has remained relatively stable, while BTC's volatility has significantly increased. ETF fund inflows and spot active buying indicate that Bitcoin is increasingly being driven by its own liquidity cycle, leverage structure, and institutional demand. The market is beginning to view Bitcoin as transitioning from a mere "high-risk asset" to a hybrid asset with both macro liquidity attributes and an independent market structure.

Sumber: BlockBeats

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