BlockBeats News, August 18th. The global market is currently facing three key factors: geopolitical risks between the US and Iran, rising long-term Treasury yields, and a repricing of the Fed's policy outlook. The US 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.31%, hitting a new high since 2007. In addition, Japan, the UK, and China all reduced their holdings of US Treasuries in June, reflecting the multiple pressures of fiscal supply, foreign demand, and inflation risks on long-term Treasuries.

On the other hand, after the expiration of the US-Iran 60-day mutual understanding arrangement, Trump stated that he will not seek an extension. He warned that if Oman hinders US efforts to restart shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, military action may be taken. Iran has shifted its policy from defense to a more offensive stance, and has demanded that the US fulfill its commitments within weeks. If diplomatic mediation continues to fail, the uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz navigation and oil supply could further drive up energy prices, impacting global interest rates and risk asset valuations through inflation expectations.

In terms of monetary policy, a Reuters survey showed that 90% of economists expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged in September, with about 80% believing there will be no rate adjustments throughout the year. This contrasts with the recent weakening of the US dollar. However, what is truly worth noting is that short-term rates are influenced by economic data, while long-term rates continue to be affected by fiscal deficits, Treasury supply, and inflation risks. This means that "Fed's no rate hike" does not equate to "loose financial conditions," and long-term funding costs may still remain high.

Gold has benefited from fiscal pressures and global central bank demand for holdings, maintaining its strength recently. This indicates that the market is gradually trading a longer-term macro logic: as US debt, interest payments, and Treasury supply continue to rise, even if monetary policy does not tighten further, the risk premium on long-term rates and US dollar assets may still increase.

Regarding the stock market, the VIX dropped to an intrayear low of 14.2, the S&P 500 index has accumulated a year-to-date increase of about 16%, and stock funds have seen 12 consecutive weeks of inflows. However, with long-term bond yields rising, weakening consumption data, and escalating Middle East tensions, there is a clear discrepancy with the stock market's very low volatility. This means that the core risk of the current market does not necessarily come from a single event, but from the mismatch between low-volatility asset pricing and high rates, geopolitical, and fiscal pressure.

The crypto market is also showing fund differentiation. Cryptocurrency ETFs saw a net outflow of about $90.55 million in the past week, but still had a net inflow of about $977 million in the past month, and a net outflow of about $5.406 billion in the past quarter. Short-term fund momentum has not yet formed a clear resonance, and high-volatility assets like BTC are still easily influenced by US dollar liquidity, long-term yields, and global risk preferences.

Therefore, what the market truly needs to observe recently is not just the simple expectations of rate cuts or hikes, but whether long-term funding costs continue to rise, and whether the US-Iran situation further transforms into energy and inflation shocks. If the 30-year Treasury yield remains high or continues to rise, and at the same time the risk in the Strait of Hormuz drives up energy prices, high-valuation assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies will face higher discount rates and risk premium pressure. Conversely, if geopolitical tensions ease, inflation continues to fall, and long-term bond yields are controlled, risk assets will be more likely to maintain their current high valuations.