BlockBeats News, August 27,

Bernstein lowered its Strategy target price, reducing it from $450 to $350, but maintaining an "Outperform" rating. The Strategy stock price has fallen significantly over the past year, but has recently rebounded along with Bitcoin, with a weekly gain of over 20% at one point. This also reflects that the market's core pricing of this company is still tied to the Bitcoin cycle rather than its traditional software business.

This target price revision by the bank mainly stems from a readjustment of the Bitcoin trajectory and company model. However, Bernstein has not changed its long-term bullish framework. It is expected that Bitcoin will recover to a new high of $150,000 in mid-2027 and reach $300,000 at the peak of the cycle in 2029. In other words, the downward revision of the short-term target price more reflects changes in valuation assumptions, while the long-term logic still bets on Bitcoin entering the next round of hard asset revaluation cycle.

The macro logic of the report is that the world has ended a 40-year era of falling interest rates, and high sovereign debt will put governments under heavier pressure from interest expenses. As yields rise, fiscal deficits, refinancing needs, and debt servicing costs will form a cycle. Bernstein believes that policymakers are more likely to choose currency devaluation to alleviate fiscal pressure, and scarce assets will benefit as a result.

Bitcoin is seen as a leading hard asset in this framework. The bank points out that Bitcoin has a strong base of long-term holders, with about 60% of the supply controlled by holders with low price sensitivity, who are reluctant to sell even after experiencing a drawdown of over 50%. Meanwhile, spot ETFs, institutional custody, and a more favorable regulatory environment will continue to broaden the global capital inflow into Bitcoin.

For Strategy, this is both an opportunity and a high-volatility risk. The company's stock price will continue to closely follow Bitcoin's price changes; if Bitcoin continues to rebound, Strategy's leveraged BTC exposure will amplify the upside resilience; if risk assets pull back or the U.S. dollar and real interest rates rebound, the stock price will also endure more violent fluctuations. Bernstein SocGen's latest adjustment shows that Wall Street still recognizes Bitcoin's long-term cycle, but tolerance for short-term valuation of related stocks is decreasing.