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US-Iran Conflict Enters Phase of Simultaneous Fighting and Negotiation, Israel Maintains Restraint but Risks Intervention

BlockBeats News, July 20th. The United States and Iran are maintaining a delicate balance between military action and diplomatic negotiations, with neither side currently crossing the other's core red lines. Analysis suggests that although Israel has not directly intervened in the conflict, if the situation escalates, it may still launch military action against Iran's nuclear facilities and missile capabilities.

Reports indicate that Israel's previous "Roaring Lion" operation against Iran has temporarily ceased following the 14-point framework agreement between the U.S. and Iran, creating a 60-day negotiation window aimed at advancing a long-term solution.

Currently, the U.S. continues to target Iranian assets, focusing primarily on facilities related to the Strait of Hormuz, and has conducted limited attacks on infrastructure such as bridges and railways to pressure Iran. In response, Iran has targeted U.S. assets in the region, including targets in Jordan and Saudi Arabia, but has not directly attacked Israel.

Analysts point out that there is currently an undisclosed "red line" between the U.S. and Iran: the U.S. avoids large-scale strikes on Iran's critical national infrastructure, while Iran refrains from expanding the conflict to Israeli territory.

However, Israel may directly intervene if the following three scenarios occur:

· The U.S. expands the scope of military actions. If the U.S. attacks Iran's nuclear facilities or ballistic missile program, including crucial targets like "Pickaxe Mountain" that have not been targeted before, it may prompt Iran to broaden its retaliatory scope.

· Both sides escalate the conflict due to miscalculation. Sudden actions by the U.S., Iran, or Israel could disrupt the current limited conflict status.

· Israel actively seeks a military opportunity to strike Iran's nuclear facilities and missile capabilities to achieve goals not met in the previous "Roaring Lion" operation.

Meanwhile, Israel is intensifying its efforts to influence public opinion in the U.S. According to The Wall Street Journal, the Israeli government has recently invested over $45 million to enhance American public perception of Israeli policies, including conducting opinion campaigns through AI-generated text messages.

ソース:BlockBeats

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