BlockBeats News, August 11th. Chloe, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Researcher, pointed out that the core contradiction of the current macro market has shifted from "When will the Fed cut interest rates?" to "Does the Fed need to hike rates again?" Warsh attempted to reduce the impact of monthly data on policy, but due to the market's incomplete understanding of its policy framework, the inflation data for July and August has become a key variable in determining the September policy expectations. If the core CPI remains at 0.2% or below, the market will trade inflation fallback and policy pause again; if it continues to exceed expectations, the Fed will face the choice between "hike or lose credibility."

For risk assets, the focus should not only be on the federal funds rate but on the long-term U.S. Treasury yields. The "short-term decline, long-term rise" seen after the July meeting implies that the market is beginning to factor in higher long-term inflation risks and a Fed credibility premium. If the 30-year Treasury yield continues to rise, even if the Fed stays put, financial conditions will naturally tighten, and high valuation, liquidity-dependent tech stocks and Crypto will be suppressed.

For Crypto, the next month is more likely to be characterized by high volatility rather than a unidirectional trend. If CPI remains moderate, U.S. bond yields retreat, and the dollar weakens, BTC may benefit first and lead the rebound of high beta altcoins. If inflation accelerates again, the market will reprice the probability of a September rate hike, long-term rates may once again spike, and Crypto may experience leveraged unwinding and rapid sell-offs.

Therefore, it is currently more important to focus not on betting early on "hike or no hike" but on the evolution of three sets of signals: whether core CPI and PCE rebound continuously, whether the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield breaks through the previous high, and whether BTC can maintain relative strength in the face of macro headwinds. If inflation is high and BTC remains stable, it indicates that internal funds in Crypto are forming an independent trend; conversely, if yields rise and BTC breaks below key support, caution is needed against the possibility of a new round of liquidity tightening.

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