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BlockBeats News, August 20th, Glassnode released a report at 12:00 AM today pointing out that the on-chain structure of Bitcoin is still in a "surrender phase," with the short-term holder's cost basis having dropped to around $68,500, below the true market value of around $75,800. At the same time, the current round's relative unrealized loss is about 25%, significantly lower than the previous cycle's over 60% during the surrender phase, indicating that the current market's loss is relatively shallow but more evenly distributed, possibly requiring a longer time to clear out.
Glassnode also stated that the 90-day average of the realized profit-loss ratio is 0.75, whereas historically, this metric usually drops below 0.5 before seller exhaustion, indicating that true seller exhaustion has not yet occurred. Glassnode further pointed out that before this metric crosses back above 2, any price rebound should be seen more as a local rebound rather than a fundamental shift in the market trend.
Furthermore, the 30-day directional funding rate in the perpetual futures market briefly went deeply negative during the recent downturn but has now significantly rebounded and re-entered positive territory. This means that leveraged traders are once again willing to pay a premium for long exposure, showing an improvement in speculative risk appetite. However, in contrast to the improvement in the perpetual futures market, the Coinbase Premium Index remains negative. This indicates that a meaningful return of demand in the U.S. spot market has not yet materialized.
免責事項:現在のコンテンツは第三者の視点に基づくもの、または第三者の視点からAIが直接翻訳したものです。CoinExはコンテンツの信頼性、正確性、独創性を保証するものではなく、CoinExからの投資アドバイスを構成するものではありません。暗号資産の価格変動は急激に変動します。潜在的なリスクにご注意ください。
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