BlockBeats News, June 1st. On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr stated in the latest report that the Bitcoin market has entered a clear stage of volatility compression. The one-week realized volatility (30-day MA) has decreased from around 39 in early March to currently around 17, marking a quarterly decline of over 56% and nearing historical lows. Currently, the BTC price is holding around $73,500, still below the 200-day MA of around $79,500.

Historical experience shows that extremely low volatility often indicates that the market is accumulating energy, which is typically followed by a significant directional trend. However, volatility compression itself does not provide a directional signal, only indicating that the market is about to see new trend choices. Meanwhile, the Delta indicator, which reflects changes in market premium (the difference between market value growth rate and realized market value growth rate), has been in negative territory for six consecutive months and further dropped to around -0.0013 in May. This indicator suggests that Bitcoin's market value growth rate continues to lag behind the realized market value growth rate, indicating a contraction in market risk appetite and valuation premium.

The current market exhibits a combination of "low volatility + cooling premium," which is not a typical overheated bull market structure but rather closer to a consolidation phase after emotional cooling. If BTC subsequently rises above the 200-day MA and Delta rebounds to near zero, it would signal a reentry into a risk appetite expansion period. Conversely, if volatility declines further and Delta continues to deteriorate, it may enter a deeper risk-averse phase.

In conclusion, Axel Adler Jr summarized that the current market direction remains neutral, but the level of compression is relatively high, increasing the probability of significant directional volatility in the future.