BlockBeats News, July 12th, according to Fortune report, Bitcoin is currently still in a bear market. Several industry analysts believe that the three main reasons for Bitcoin's continued slump are the four-year cycle, inflationary pressure, and market leverage liquidation. However, some analysts predict that with the improvement of the interest rate environment, Bitcoin may rebound to $100,000 by the end of the year.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that the four-year cycle of Bitcoin still influences investor psychology. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has usually experienced three consecutive years of growth followed by a year of decline. The market adjustments after the 2014 Mt. Gox crash, the 2018 ICO bubble burst, and the 2022 FTX collapse all fit this pattern. Hougan said that by the end of 2025, some long-term Bitcoin holders will begin to reduce their positions.

Grayscale Research Head Zach Pandl stated that this round of decline is more driven by macro factors. US June inflation rose to 4.1% year-on-year, exceeding the Federal Reserve's long-term 2% target, leading the market to expect Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh to possibly raise interest rates later this year. Pandl said that in recent years, there has been a clear relationship between Bitcoin's price and interest rate changes, with a low-interest-rate environment driving Bitcoin's rise and an interest rate hike cycle bringing pressure.

Furthermore, market leverage is also a key factor in Bitcoin's decline. Hougan and CryptoQuant Research Director Julio Moreno stated that investors increase leverage during bull markets, and as the market weakens, leverage is being squeezed out. Funding buying models of Bitcoin treasury companies like Strategy are also under pressure, with their stock prices having fallen by about 75% since October.

Pandl expects that Bitcoin may touch the $58,000 bottom in the short term, with the market still influenced by factors such as potential interest rate hikes, Strategy's impact on market confidence, and the progress of the US crypto bill. However, 21Shares Chief Investment Strategist Adrian Fritz predicts that Bitcoin will bottom out in the summer and rebound to $100,000 by the end of the year, citing the future rate cut expectations and the end of the Iran war as reasons.