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BlockBeats News, July 20th. A recent research report by Goldman Sachs shows that inflationary pressures in the United States are transitioning from a few industries to a broader range, although the current inflation level has not yet reached the peak of 2022, the scope of price increases is expanding, posing a greater challenge to Federal Reserve policy.
Goldman Sachs economist Jessica Rindels used the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a key focus of the Federal Reserve, to analyze the spread of inflation through a six-month annualized growth rate. The data shows that compared to the average inflation level from 1990 to 2019, the pressure index of inflation categories exceeding 3% has now reached around "6," while it was "10" during the peak inflation of 2022.
The report points out that sectors such as audiovisual equipment, financial services, healthcare, and transportation have become significant sources of current price increases. Meanwhile, the inflation of housing rent, which has a high PCE weighting, is expected to fall to below 3% in the fourth quarter of this year, potentially serving as a key factor in alleviating inflationary pressures.
Goldman's analysis echoes recent concerns about inflation dispersion expressed by the newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh. Warsh stated that preventing price increases from spreading to more economic sectors is a critical task for the Federal Reserve.
However, unlike former Chair Powell's more explicit policy communication approach, Warsh is currently refusing to provide specific interest rate guidance. Jeremy Schwartz, Senior US Economist at Nomura Securities, stated that the Federal Reserve is reducing its forward guidance to the market, increasing uncertainty and concerns on Wall Street.
Meanwhile, there is a growing hawkish sentiment within the Federal Reserve. Dallas Fed President Logan has expressed support for a moderate interest rate hike, believing that the current economic resilience is not aligned with inflation risks.
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