BlockBeats News, July 28th - Crypto analyst Murphy pointed out that the concentration of chips within a 5% range of the BTC spot price continues to rise, climbing from 10% in May to the current 12%. Although it is still some distance from the critical point of 15%, it has exceeded the level that triggered a significant volatility in May. The logic behind this is that when chips are too concentrated in a certain price range, small price changes will exacerbate the turnover of sensitive chips, leading to larger fluctuations.

Historical data shows that a concentration greater than 15% indicates a higher probability of triggering a major market move. In November 2025, it reached 18%, and in January 2026, it reached 16%. However, after the price drop following February this year triggered a supply-side marginal diminishing effect, prolonged low circulation and turnover reduced the prominence of chip concentration. Nevertheless, the significant volatility observed in May with only a 10% concentration suggests that market sentiment has become more fragile and unstable.

The analyst believes that if BTC continues to move sideways in the range of $62,000 to $66,000 in the near future, the concentration of chips will inevitably further increase. This will eventually lead to a violent breakout to redistribute the overly concentrated chips, possibly marking an important directional decision at the end of this bear market cycle. The 5% range chip concentration has successfully assisted in predicting the direction of fluctuations at multiple crucial points. The current upward trend of this indicator indicates that the market is gradually approaching the next significant turning point window.