BlockBeats News, August 18th, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released an analysis. On-chain data shows that the Bitcoin long-term holder cost basis is $49,400, corresponding to a current price multiple of 1.3x. Bitcoin has been in a low-risk zone between the long-term holder cost basis and 1.5x for 78 consecutive days. The price at 1.5x is approximately $74,100. The current supply held by long-term holders is 16.35 million BTC, only 58,000 BTC lower than the historical peak of 16.41 million BTC on July 30th. In the past 15 days, there have been only 2 days of supply decrease, indicating that the selling pressure from this group has nearly reached its lowest level. The analyst pointed out that these two signals together imply that the valuation is still low relative to the long-term holder cost basis, and there are hardly any signs of continuous distribution by long-term holders.

The analyst emphasized that this combination represents a "constructive supply structure" but does not independently signal the start of a new uptrend. The current situation indicates that long-term holders are still overall in an unrealized profit state (with the price about 30% above the cost basis), and the market is still in the lower part of the historical valuation range. However, for the price to embark on a new uptrend, further confirmation is still needed from both the demand side and the price side. If the price falls below $49,400, long-term holders will overall be at an unrealized loss, entering a lower-risk zone from a valuation perspective but significantly increasing the selling pressure from long-term holders considering the market state.