BlockBeats News, September 1st, Wintermute stated in a post that Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium has raised the market's expectation of a rate hike in September to 61.9%. The FOMC meeting on September 15th to 16th will be a significant catalyst for risk assets, including the crypto market. Meanwhile, in August's cross-asset performance, 20+ year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by 1.01%, the S&P 500 Index rose by 0.47%, the Nasdaq rose by 0.42%, BTC rose by 0.10%; ETH fell by 0.86%, and gold and Brent crude oil rose by 3.42% and 4.31%, respectively.

In the past week, BTC consolidated after its previous 23% increase, briefly rising above $81,000, then falling below $78,000 after Warsh's speech, ending the week with a 0.10% increase. Wintermute believes that despite the hawkish stance of the Fed, the pullback in chip stocks, and end-of-month factors, BTC has not retraced its previous breakout, showing overall positive performance. However, $82,000 has repeatedly proven to be a resistance level.

Insufficient allocation of funds is still a key support for BTC's price. The current critical support levels in the market are $75,000 and $72,000, with a resistance level at $82,000. If the weekly chart drops below $72,000, there will be a lack of clear support below. In the short term, a healthier trend may involve BTC retracing near $75,000, completing deleveraging, and then attempting an upward breakthrough.

Wintermute stated that the first two weeks of September will have a significant impact on the market's direction, and the nonfarm payrolls data released on September 4th may significantly alter rate hike expectations before the FOMC meeting. If their views change, they will mainly watch for two signals: weekly net outflows in BTC ETF funds or a weekly closing below $72,000 for BTC.