BlockBeats News, July 18th, as the U.S. Senate remains deadlocked on the CLARITY Act, the prediction market Polymarket has lowered the probability of the bill passing by the end of 2026 to 32%, hitting a new low since the market launched in January this year.

Data shows that the probability has dropped by about 30 percentage points since the market launched, and has significantly retreated from the high of 82% set in February this year. The market believes that as the Senate's legislative schedule tightens and bipartisan support has not been achieved, the likelihood of the bill passing this year continues to diminish.

Reports indicate that the biggest sticking point currently is the failure of the two parties to reach consensus on ethics provisions related to government officials' conflicts of interest in digital asset holdings. Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego has explicitly stated that he will not support the bill in the Senate vote if it does not include bipartisan-supported ethical provisions.

The CLARITY Act aims to establish a regulatory framework for the U.S. digital asset market, clarifying the regulatory boundaries between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Several industry professionals testified at a House hearing that the bill would help end "regulation by enforcement" and provide the digital asset industry with long-term, stable regulatory rules. With the U.S. Congress set to enter its August recess, market expectations for the bill to be legislated this year are rapidly cooling.