BlockBeats News, July 9th, the core risk of the global market has returned to the energy transportation order, and the global cost of capital is being simultaneously reassessed.

Trump officially announced the end of the US-Iran temporary ceasefire agreement, the US military continues to expand its military strikes against Iran, and Iran has suspended final peace talks, once again using the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Mandeb as a retaliatory chip. From the latest statements of both sides, the conflict has evolved from military confrontation to a game for control over global energy transportation, and the inability to establish a consensus on the rules of the Hormuz Strait implies that even if there is no full-scale war in the short term, shipping risks and energy risks will continue to exist, and oil price volatility will also become a key variable for future global inflation.

After the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the June meeting, the market also saw another noteworthy change. The committee is no longer discussing rate cuts internally, but is beginning to assess the possibilities of rate hikes and maintaining high rates simultaneously. In addition to tariffs and energy, AI infrastructure investment is now seen for the first time as a new factor that could boost demand and prices, representing that the source of inflation is gradually shifting from past supply shocks to the capital expenditure and corporate investment cycle. This also indicates that maintaining high rates for a longer period is not just to suppress inflation, but is also in response to the price pressures brought about by a new round of capital spending.

The IMF has pointed out that even if the Middle East conflict cools down in the future, US inflation may not have a chance to return to the 2% target until the end of 2027, reflecting that the cost shocks brought about by geopolitics are not one-time events, but may transform into longer-term inflation stickiness. At the same time, the IMF has also warned of overheating in AI asset valuations, stating that once market expectations change, high-valuation tech stocks still face significant correction risks.

As for the crypto market, Bitcoin fell below $62,500 yesterday to complete the lower liquidity sweep before quickly rebounding, and is currently retesting the resistance near $63,000. If it fails to hold above this level effectively, there is still a chance for the price to further retest the key consolidation area near $60,000; on the other hand, if it successfully breaks through and holds above $63,000, short-term selling pressure is expected to gradually ease. Overall, with the Federal Reserve's policy still highly uncertain, increased energy price volatility, and the global risk aversion sentiment repeatedly escalating, the market is expected to maintain a high volatility pattern in the short term, with funds continuing to be priced around liquidity-dense areas.