BlockBeats News, July 10th, the global market is still pricing around three main themes simultaneously: Federal Reserve institutional reform, the U.S. AI capital competition, and the geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh officially announced the formation of five major reform working groups, covering key areas such as inflation, the balance sheet, economic data, productivity, and policy communication, and introduced participation from the technology industry, academia, and corporate leaders. This represents that what the market needs to pay attention to in the future is not just interest rate policy, but whether the Federal Reserve's decision-making framework itself is gradually changing, including reducing forward guidance, redefining economic data, and adjusting the balance sheet management approach. The uncertainty of future policies may be higher than in the past few years.

On the other hand, AI industry capital expenditure continues to expand. OpenAI launched the GPT-5.6 series model, Micron announced an increase in U.S. investment to over $250 billion, and Meta denied an oversupply of computing power, believing that computing power rental also has commercial value. This shows that large tech companies continue to invest in AI infrastructure, making AI still an important theme attracting global funds.

On the geopolitical front, the U.S.-Iran conflict continues to maintain a state of "military confrontation coexisting with technical negotiations." Although both sides have taken military actions and the ceasefire agreement is effectively defunct, technical negotiations have not been terminated, the United States has not yet resumed full-scale military operations, and Oman has openly opposed the imposition of transit fees on the Hormuz Strait. This reflects that all parties are still trying to maintain the energy transportation order and reduce the likelihood of an all-out conflict. The market is currently trading not peace, but rather the short-term opportunity for the global energy supply chain to maintain basic operations.

In addition, Deutsche Bank pointed out that the structure of attracting overseas capital in the United States is gradually shifting from "buying U.S. bonds" to "buying U.S. stocks." The stability of the U.S. dollar is becoming more dependent on the AI industry's business cycle rather than traditional safe-haven demand. If this trend continues, future global fund flows will be more concentrated on technology assets with high growth expectations, which also means that the volatility of the dollar and risk assets may simultaneously increase.

Regarding the crypto market, yesterday Bitcoin successfully broke through the $63,000 resistance zone, with nearly $79.5 million worth of short positions liquidated in the past 24 hours, pushing the price to test $64,000. Currently, $64,000 remains a short-term key resistance level. If it can hold above this level effectively, it indicates that market risk appetite is likely to improve further; otherwise, if the breakout fails, one should be cautious of profit-taking-induced short-term fluctuations. Overall, at present, the market is not rising due to the disappearance of negative factors, but is readjusting the risk premium of various risk assets against the backdrop where global institutional reform, AI capital expansion, and geopolitical risks have not yet spiraled out of control.