BlockBeats News, July 13th, as the situation in Iran escalated once again, pushing up oil prices and triggering speculation in the market that the Fed may need to raise interest rates to curb inflation, the yield on the US two-year Treasury note climbed to its highest level since early 2025.

The two-year Treasury yield, sensitive to interest rate changes, rose by 3 basis points to 4.24%, hitting a new high since February 2025; the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield also rose by 3 basis points to 4.59%.

Swap trading data shows that the market has almost fully digested the expectation of a Fed rate hike in September, a probability that was around 66% a week ago. "Currently, the market is quite sensitive to news regarding Iran,"

Australian National Bank's Interest Rate Strategy Director, Kenneth Crompton, stated, "The market did not anticipate a resurgence of tension similar to that in March, but given the continued attacks over the weekend and the attacks on Russian refineries, a sense of vigilance is once again emerging in market sentiment."