BlockBeats News, May 7th, the current goal of the US and Iran is a Memorandum of Understanding, not a comprehensive peace agreement, indicating that there are still differences between the two sides and that any agreement at this stage would be a transitional step. The US government appears to be changing its negotiation strategy by simplifying the negotiation agenda, starting with simpler issues and leaving the most contentious issues to be addressed at a later stage.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the "US-Iran reaching a permanent peace agreement" is 34% by May 15th, 47% by May 31st, and 59% by June 30th.