BlockBeats News, July 14th. The United States announced a blockade of Iranian ports, Iran kept the Strait of Hormuz closed, and the Middle East conflict continued to escalate, raising once again the uncertainty of global energy supply. Although Iran has lifted the ban on petroleum exports, the Strait of Hormuz remains a vital passage for about one-fifth of the world's seaborne crude oil. Any disruption in shipping will drive up global energy costs, forcing the market to reassess inflation risks in the coming months rather than just focusing on short-term oil price fluctuations.

Tonight, the market's attention is on the U.S. June CPI and Federal Reserve Chair Powell's congressional testimony. The market generally expects that due to the decline in energy prices in June, the overall CPI is expected to cool down. However, what truly influences policy direction is core inflation. If prices for services such as healthcare, insurance, and finance continue to experience high growth, it indicates that U.S. inflationary pressure has gradually shifted from energy-driven to structural service inflation. Even if the overall CPI decreases, it is not enough to change the Fed's stance on high-rate policies.

It is worth noting that the market has almost fully priced in one rate hike in September and priced in a total of two rate hikes by March next year. Fed Governor Waller has explicitly stated that if core inflation exceeds expectations once again, the FOMC will have to consider further tightening monetary policy in the short term. This means that what the market is truly trading tonight is not just a single CPI data point, but whether the Fed has sufficient reasons to further strengthen the path of "maintaining high rates for longer" or even accelerate policy tightening.

On the other hand, AI remains the core direction of global capital expenditure. Meta announced an additional $40 billion investment in data centers, the South Korean government raised future tax revenue estimates due to the optimistic AI chip market, and TSMC's June revenue grew by 68% year-on-year, reaching a historic high. This reflects that the global AI infrastructure is still rapidly expanding. Even though overall demand is facing pressure from high rates, AI-related companies continue to attract capital investment, and there are no clear signs of a fundamental cooling in the tech industry.

Looking ahead, tonight's CPI report is not only about confirming whether inflation cooled down in June but also about confirming whether the market's assessment of the future inflation structure is accurate. If core inflation remains sticky and is coupled with the ongoing escalation of energy risks in the Middle East, the Fed will have more compelling reasons to maintain its tightening policy. U.S. bond yields and the dollar may remain at elevated levels, and risk assets will continue to face pressure from funding costs. After BTC failed to hold above the $63,000 resistance level effectively yesterday, short-term attention is still required to see if it will further test the $60,000 psychological support level. Tonight's inflation data and the Fed's statements will be crucial catalysts in determining the short-term price direction.