BlockBeats News, July 25th, China's domestic storage chip leader ChangXin Memory Technology (CXMT) plans to officially list on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board next Monday, July 27th, with an anticipated initial market value of about 580 billion yuan. ChangXin is expected to challenge the position of the world's third-largest DRAM supplier. Currently, the predictions for its post-listing market value performance are as follows:

UBS's latest research report believes that the DRAM industry will be in short supply at least until the second quarter of 2028, providing a key support for market expectations of ChangXin Technology achieving a trillion-yuan or higher valuation in the context of sustained high prosperity.

Zhang Xiaorong, Director of Deep Technology Research Institute, stated that assuming ChangXin's net profit this year is around hundreds of billion yuan, with a reasonable PE ratio of 20-25 times, coupled with industry trends, it is highly probable that the post-listing market value will reach the trillion-yuan level.

CNBC's technology analyst Daniel Haylor's view: ChangXin Technology is in a favorable position, especially benefiting from the significant shortage in the mobile memory market; the world's top three memory giants are shifting a large portion of their production capacity to the higher-profit HBM field, which will further squeeze the supply of general DRAM. As China's leading DRAM manufacturer, ChangXin is poised to achieve significant growth and valuation revaluation in this structural opportunity.

Senior investment banker Wang Ji Yue predicts that ChangXin Technology's valuation after listing is expected to reach 2 trillion yuan to 3 trillion yuan, benchmarking against Micron, with the latest P/E ratios (TTM) of Samsung Electronics and Micron being 21.7 times and 21.3 times, respectively.

CITIC Securities' research report predicts that the shortage in storage will persist at least until 2027, with price increases throughout the full year of 2026. The industry cycle logic strengthens institutional investors' optimistic judgment on ChangXin Technology's post-listing valuation of 2-3 trillion yuan.

Reuters' view: It is expected that its market value is likely to exceed 3 trillion yuan (about $443 billion), driven by the AI boom and self-reliance in technology, and may even reach 5 trillion yuan.

Several domestic Chinese brokerages unanimously predict that ChangXin Technology's post-listing market value is expected to reach 2-3 trillion yuan. The core supports include long-term demand for AI computing power, DRAM/HBM, the unique DRAM production platform attribute in China, backing from the national sovereign wealth fund, and domestic substitution logic. Some calculations indicate that a reasonable opening range is between 2 and 2.5 trillion yuan.

Financial Times Analyst Expectation: Changxin Technology's Valuation Expected to Soar to as High as RMB 3 Trillion, mainly benefiting from the AI-led storage chip demand surge and the company's rapid expansion of market share in the global DRAM market, with international analysts optimistic about the company's growth story and structural opportunities.

Some optimistic institutions and certain securities industry analysts believe that under high prosperity and A-share semiconductor scarcity premium, Changxin Technology's market value may temporarily peak above RMB 3 trillion and even reach RMB 4 trillion, possibly higher in extreme scenarios. This view is based on the 2026 high net profit expectations and the growth stock valuation logic benchmarked against international giants.

Third-party research market professional estimation data show that, in the medium to long term, benefiting from the long-term dividend brought by AI infrastructure, specific scenarios include assuming revenue close to or exceeding RMB 100 billion and net profit of RMB 10 billion to 15 billion by 2026-2027, valued at a 50-100 times high prosperity P/E ratio. The secondary market may grant a monopolistic leader valuation, with the long-term stable market value highly likely falling in the range of RMB 16 trillion to 22 trillion.