BlockBeats News, August 12th, Serenity issued a statement indicating that recent financial reports from multiple optical communication companies further validated their assessment of the Continuous Wave (CW) DFB laser supply bottleneck. Lumentum (LITE) stated that the ultra-high-power CW lasers experienced a higher-than-expected demand leading to a supply-demand imbalance. The company has the ability to increase the average selling price of lasers and confirmed that CPO capacity expansion is proceeding as planned. Shipments are expected to commence in the second half of 2027, dismissing rumors of any delays in CPO expansion as "noise."

Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) mentioned that due to excessive demand for optical transceivers, the company's current CW laser capacity is insufficient. They identified lasers as one of the bottlenecks contributing to the 20% to 40% supply gap for optical transceivers. Customers are requesting supply increases weekly and expediting deliveries. AAOI is not currently involved in the deployment of the first-generation CPO. Serenity also noted that MACOM (MTSI) is currently more focused on NPO. MTSI stated that due to the overall tight supply of indium phosphide DFB lasers, many customers are urgently seeking supply.

Regarding the competitive landscape, Serenity cited statements from AAOI and Lumentum management indicating that Chinese manufacturers are still notably behind in the CPO laser field. AAOI stated that they are lagging behind by approximately 2 to 3 years, while Lumentum mentioned they have not seen Chinese manufacturers achieve qualified capacity and output levels matching their public claims. Based on this, Serenity believes that there are still significant barriers to entry for first-generation CPO-related lasers, and the market has not seen the influx of supply as suggested by some bearish views.

Serenity stated that their previous assessments regarding the CW laser supply bottleneck and the limited number of first-generation CPO laser suppliers have been further corroborated by recent financial reports. They specifically mentioned Sivers Semiconductors (SIVE), noting that its market capitalization of approximately $1.5 billion is still relatively small compared to CPO-related companies such as Coherent, Lumentum, and Broadcom. The focus is now on the upcoming business inflection point driven by the transition to the next-generation optical communication architecture.