BlockBeats News, August 19th, shipping data is showing a shift in the actual passage pattern in the Strait of Hormuz. Kpler data shows that in the past two weeks, over 80% of the vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz have chosen the Omani side route, a route authorized by the United Nations but previously opposed by Iran.
Analysts believe that while both the U.S. and Iran claim to control the Strait of Hormuz, neither side actually fully dominates this key global energy passage. Kpler's Crude Oil Analysis Director, Homayoun Falakshahi, stated that it is becoming increasingly clear that Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait.
A month ago, Kpler found almost no vessels using the Omani route; now this proportion has risen to over 80%. At the same time, the number of vessels preferring the Iranian route has significantly decreased, affecting Iran's ability to collect passage fees through the strait.
The U.S. relies on ongoing maritime military deployment to monitor shipping security. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that the current oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz and the redirected volumes are approaching around 15 million barrels per day, close to the pre-conflict level of about 20 million barrels per day.
However, Iran still retains a certain deterrent capability. Analysts point out that if Iran's goal is to fully control the strait, it has never truly achieved this goal. However, using military actions to create risks and impact shipping remains a key part of its strategy.
Currently, Iran and Oman are discussing the resumption of arrangements for free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar has stated that if relevant agreements are reached, it may create conditions to facilitate the return of the U.S. and Iran to the negotiating table. However, President Trump recently stated that the U.S. is currently not engaged in any negotiations or dialogues with Iran.
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