BlockBeats News, May 10th - Analyst Yashu Gola stated that the ETH/BTC exchange rate has dropped over 35% in the past year, and the current trend is repeating a bearish structure from 2024 to 2025, suggesting the possibility of further downside. From a technical perspective, the ETH/BTC pair has been constrained by a downtrend line since 2022, with several unsuccessful breakout attempts, one of which led to a subsequent drop of nearly 70%. In August 2025, ETH/BTC once again tested this trend line, faced resistance, fell back, and broke below the 20-month EMA support near 0.034, indicating continued bearish dominance. If the weakness persists, the next key downside target is around 0.0176 BTC, representing a further potential 40% decline from the current level, corresponding to the 2020 cycle low area.

On-chain data shows that the selling pressure risk for ETH is also increasing. CryptoQuant data reveals that as of May, the ETH balance on the Binance exchange has risen to 3.62 million ETH, accounting for approximately 24.6% of all exchange ETH reserves, while the BTC balance on Binance continues to decline. Generally, an increase in exchange reserves indicates an increase in tokens available for sale, while a decrease in reserves reflects a strengthening trend of long-term holding.

Analysts believe that this further reinforces the fundamental divergence between ETH and BTC: ETH faces higher circulation supply pressure, while BTC benefits from exchange liquidity tightening and continuous institutional accumulation. Meanwhile, the narrative hype around Ethereum as a "super sound money" has waned, while BTC continues to receive corporate buying, including from Strategy, and Wall Street support.