BlockBeats News, May 18th: During the past two cryptocurrency bear markets, the month of May during US midterm election years has been marked by significant Bitcoin drops: In May 2018, Bitcoin fell from nearly $10,000 to around $7,000; in May 2022, it tumbled from about $40,000 to $28,500, and then further down to $20,000. As 2026 also falls within a bear market cycle and coincides with a US midterm election year, concerns about a repeat of historical trends are on the rise.

Cryptocurrency analyst Merlijn Enkelaar stated last Sunday, "This is the most brutal pattern in Bitcoin's history. No one wants to hear it, but this pattern is too perfect. During midterm election years, Bitcoin always experiences a crash." He believes that even with the current positive factors such as the advancement of the 'CLARITY Act,' the Trump administration signaling positive cryptocurrency policies, and a potential US-China trade deal, it is not enough to completely change the historical cyclical pattern. In his view, if market sentiment deteriorates further, the Bitcoin price could even drop to around $33,000.

Meanwhile, Alphractal's founder and CEO Joao Wedson is also cautious about the future market outlook. He expressed that if Bitcoin continues to trade below $78,000, the probability of entering a new phase of "surrender sell-off" would significantly increase, with bearish forces already showing signs. Analysts believe that against the backdrop of macro uncertainty, market leverage contraction, and decreasing risk appetite, Bitcoin's short-term trajectory may still face significant pressure.